Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-06-27
US military strikes Iranian targets in Hormuz Strait; gold surges then pulls back to 4081; Oracle posts worst weekly drop since dot-com bust
π Market Snapshot
- π₯ Gold (XAUUSD) 4081.29 (+54.59 / +1.36%), peaked at 4096 before pulling back, briefly dipping to 3983
- π’οΈ WTI Crude 70.077 (-1.249 / -1.75%), ranged from 71.67 to 68.46 before bouncing
- π Oracle (ORCL) down 19.4% for the week β worst weekly drop since August 2001 dot-com bust
π₯ Key Overnight Headlines
π΄ US Military Strikes Iran β Geopolitical Escalation
- US Central Command confirmed strikes on Iranian targets on June 26, in retaliation for Iran’s drone attack on a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz the day before
- Missile hit the dock area of Bandar-e Sirik, a southern Iranian port city; explosions reported
- Iran’s military claimed it fired warning shots at “violating vessels” in the Strait hours earlier
- US military stated it will maintain presence to ensure safe commercial passage through the Strait
π Other Headlines
- IMF Chief Economist Gourinchas: Strategic reserve releases and refinery adjustments have prevented further oil price spikes; if ceasefire fails, global economy faces clear downside risks
- SpaceX issued $19B in bonds (5.35%β5.88% coupon rates)
- Zuckerberg urged Meta to consider partnering with PolyMarket
- S&P: US economic resilience supports solid fiscal revenue; tariff income helps offset fiscal deterioration
π§ Outlook
The US military strike on Iran is the dominant overnight variable, escalating Middle East tensions from “cooling talks” to “hot conflict.”
Gold’s surge to 4096 and pullback signals heavy profit-taking at highs, but the 1.36% close confirms safe-haven demand remains intact.
Crude oil’s decline despite the escalation is notable β as IMF flagged, strategic reserve releases and refinery adjustments are offsetting supply disruption fears, and conflict risk was already partially priced in.
Oracle’s 19.4% plunge exposes the fragility of AI infrastructure capex valuations β a 162% YoY capex surge combined with market skepticism on financing sustainability pressured tech broadly.
IMF’s remark that sanctions “almost never work” in the medium to long term hints at the fragility of ceasefire agreements and the nature of prolonged geopoliticalεεΌ.
Key events ahead: US June Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul 3), China June Official Manufacturing PMI (Jun 30), USDA Planting Area Report.
π Today’s Economic Calendar
- 09:30 π¨π³ China Jan-May Industrial Profits YoY (prev: 24.70%)
- 09:30 π¨π³ China May Industrial Profits YoY (prev: 18.20%)
Saturday β no major US/European data releases. Watch for China PMI (Monday) and US NFP (Friday).