π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-26 21:12 CST
US May trade deficit widens to $105.8B, far exceeding expectations; US-Iran communication established but three tankers turned back by IRGC; DXY drops to 101.06
π Market Snapshot
| Instrument | Price | Change | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAUUSD | $4,049.88 | +$23.18 (+0.58%) | $3,983.08 - $4,065.96 |
| WTI Crude USOIL | $69.44 | -$1.89 (-2.64%) | $68.84 - $71.67 |
Gold spiked above $4,060 on USD weakness and safe-haven demand, with an intraday range exceeding $80.
Oil extended losses, with the weekly decline approaching 10%. US-Iran peace talks reducing supply risk premia, while OPEC+ output competition intensifies.
US Dollar Index DXY dropped 10+ points to 101.06; EUR/USD rose over 0.5% to 1.1426.
π₯ Key Developments This Hour
β’ US May goods trade deficit came in at $105.8 billion, far worse than the $85 billion market expectation, marking the widest in over a year. Imports rose 3.6% MoM while exports fell 5.4%, reflecting resilient domestic demand alongside weakening external demand.
β’ A US-Iran communication channel has been established in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent military conflict. However, Iran’s deputy FM warned that any transit framework must be coordinated with Tehran, or designated routes would be suspended.
β’ Three foreign oil tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz “without authorization” were forced to turn back after warnings from Iran’s IRGC Navy, highlighting ongoing uncertainty over strait passage rights.
β’ US-Iran next round of negotiations scheduled for June 28-29, at the technical expert level with mediators present.
β’ Israeli Defense Minister warned that an Iranian attack on Israel would be “the biggest mistake.” Iran-Israel tensions continue to simmer.
β’ Reuters survey: Most economists predict the Fed will hold rates steady for the remainder of the year. New Fed Chair Wunch’s policy focus may shift.
β’ ECB survey shows European consumer inflation expectations have cooled significantly. Falling energy costs and economic pressures are prompting institutions to revise rate hike expectations.
β’ Russian hardliners pressure Putin to escalate the Ukraine conflict; the Kremlin remains cautious. Geopolitical risks have not fully subsided.
π§ Assessment
The US trade deficit came in far wider than expected, with strong imports and weak exports β this complicates the economic picture, supporting the dollar via interest rate differentials while simultaneously undermining it via deficit concerns.
The US-Iran communication channel is a de-escalation signal, but three tankers being turned back reveals fragility in execution. The ambiguity around Hormuz transit rights will likely become a recurring flashpoint.
Oil supply-side competition is intensifying: Angola’s August crude exports rose to 35 cargoes (from 29 in July), OPEC+ internal output race is heating up, and US-Iran talks further erode the supply risk premium β the bearish oil setup remains intact.
Key data next week: China June PMI, US Non-Farm Payrolls, and USDA acreage report. Dense data calendar combined with quarter-end rebalancing could amplify volatility.
β° Upcoming Key Data
β’ 06/29 (Mon): China June Official Manufacturing PMI β’ 06/29 (Mon): US-Iran technical-level negotiations β’ 07/01 (Tue): USDA Crop Progress Report β’ 07/03 (Thu): US Non-Farm Payrolls (June) β’ 07/04 (Fri): US Independence Day β markets closed