πŸ“° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-26 19:10 CST

πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) β€” $4,052.83/oz ↑ Day range: $3,983.08–$4,055.36 | +26.13 (+0.65%)

WTI Crude (USOIL) β€” $69.553/bbl ↓ Day range: $68.842–$71.671 | -1.773 (-2.49%)

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

β‘  Reuters Survey: Historic Reversal in Fed Rate Expectations (18:43-18:45)

  • For the first time since 2023, more economists predict Fed rate hikes than cuts
  • 78/102 economists expect rates to stay at 3.50%-3.75% through 2026 (up from 72 in early June survey)
  • Median expectation: Fed holds rates through end-2027 (early June survey expected one cut)
  • Marks a fundamental shift in market expectations for Fed policy path

β‘‘ Oil Plunges 3%, Down Nearly 10% for the Week (18:01)

  • Market focus shifts from supply disruption to producers fighting for market share
  • Iran-US peace process fading geopolitical premium; larger storm brewing for H2 oil market

β‘’ Saudi Aramco Restarts Largest Oil Port, Qatar Issues First Sales Tender (18:59)

  • Gulf oil exports seeing explosive recovery after initial Iran-US peace agreement
  • Ras Tanura port resumes loading after four months of blockade

β‘£ China Merchants Bank to Cease “Zhao Cai Jin” Gold Trading Service (18:49)

  • Will discontinue Shanghai Gold Exchange personal precious metals business after July 27
  • Reflects tightening domestic precious metals risk management

β‘€ EU-China Trade Talks Lacking Sincerity (18:43)

  • EU preparing to negotiate and fight simultaneously, risking sharp escalation in trade friction

🧭 Assessment

The Reuters survey sends a clear signal: economists have shifted en masse from “waiting for cuts” to “waiting for hikes” β€” a reversal not seen since 2023.

Oil’s near-10% weekly decline reflects the core logic fading geopolitical premiums, forcing a reassessment of supply-demand fundamentals β€” producers competing for share could push prices lower still.

EU-China trade friction is a risk worth monitoring; the EU’s posture could impact Chinese export sectors and related supply chains.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • June 27 (Friday): US PCE Inflation β€” the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, critical to validating the rate hike expectations
  • Next week (6/29–7/5): Watch for Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing PMI