Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-26 16:07 CST
Deutsche Bank slashes gold forecast; IAEA granted access to Iran nuclear sites; Iran's Hormuz Strait toll escalation; WTI crude drops 2.3%
📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-26 16:07 CST
📊 Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Spot Gold | 4,028.49 | +0.04% | Range 3,983-4,040, narrowing |
| 🛢️ WTI Crude | 69.71 | -2.27% | Extended decline, below $70 again |
- Crude under significant pressure; WTI fell from 71.30 high to 69.63 low intraday, dropping over 2%
- Brent同步 down 2% at $73.67/bbl
- Fed rate hike expectations in tug-of-war; USD slightly weaker
🔥 Key News This Hour
Deutsche Bank slashes gold price forecasts — Q3 forecast cut over 20% to $4,300/oz; Q4 cut 17% to $4,800/oz. Analyst Michael Hsueh expects safe-haven premium to gradually unwind.
IAEA granted access to Iran nuclear facilities — IAEA Director General Grossi confirmed the agency has been authorized to inspect Iranian nuclear sites under the latest US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Technical work has begun.
Iran’s Hormuz Strait toll escalation — Iran calculates a Hormuz “toll station” could generate $40 billion annually. Iran’s foreign ministry reiterated the strait lies within Iranian and Omani territorial waters, citing Article 5 of the MoU.
Iran issues wave of forceful statements — Iran countered the US-GCC joint statement as “interventionist and provocative,” reiterated zero concessions on national identity, urged Gulf states to reconsider positions, and demanded prevention of territory being used for attacks on Iran.
Hezbollah leader Qassem takes hardline stance — Declared “we have broken Israel and America’s plots and entered a new phase,” warning any encroachment on Lebanese sovereignty will not pass.
Citi: UK inflation expectations plunge — One-year inflation expectations dropped from 4.7% to 3.8%, easing Bank of England rate hike pressure.
🧭 Market Assessment
Deutsche Bank’s aggressive gold downgrade signals mainstream skepticism about the sustainability of the safe-haven premium.
Yet simultaneously, IAEA gaining Iran inspection access alongside Iran’s assertive Hormuz toll posture means geopolitical risk hasn’t dissipated.
Crude’s 2.3% decline amid such tense Middle East dynamics is noteworthy — market fears about demand are clearly outweighing supply risk premiums.
The Trump administration’s internal rift between Vance and Rubio continues to simmer, while Iran fires off a flurry of hawkish signals. The Middle East game is entering a more complex phase.
📅 Upcoming Key Data
- Jul 1, midnight: USDA planting面积 & quarterly stocks report (soybean acreage upgrade widely expected; corn adjustment magnitude could be the biggest surprise)
- Jul 14: US June CPI — widely seen as the key inflection point for rate hike/cut expectations
- Next Monday: US June ISM Manufacturing PMI