πŸ“° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-26 12:02 CST

πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

Commodities

  • Spot Gold: $4,003.30 (-0.58%) ↓ β€” Bounced back above 4,000 but still languishing at lows
  • WTI Crude: $70.46 (-1.21%) ↓ β€” Continued decline, approaching the $70 support

Asia-Pacific Markets (Midday)

  • Nikkei 225: Down over 5% β€” Hit by earthquake fears and tech sell-off double blow
  • TOPIX: Down 2%
  • A-Shares: SSE -2.14%, SZSE -3.04%, ChiNext -3.72%, nearly 4,600 stocks in the red
  • Stock Index Futures: CSI 300 main -3.23%, SSE 50 main -2.47%
  • Treasury futures slightly higher, 10Y main +0.05%, safe-haven flows into bonds

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. 5.8-magnitude earthquake hits Chiba, Japan β€” Occurred at 12:46 local time, strong shaking felt in Tokyo. Nikkei 225 plunged further to -5%. Japan’s NIED initially measured it at magnitude 6.0. No tsunami warning issued.

  2. Apple price hike triggers tech cascade sell-off β€” Apple fell over 6% after announcing product price increases. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both dropped over 9%, SoftBank crashed 13%. Korea’s KOSPI briefly triggered circuit breakers before resuming.

  3. OpenAI delays IPO plans β€” Pushed from “as soon as second half of this year” to next year. Management insists on $1 trillion valuation target, unwilling to lower expectations for a faster listing.

  4. SpaceX IPO aftermath crushes space sector β€” Multiple space-related stocks down over 50% in June as market sentiment swung from FOMO to panic.

  5. Fed policy expectations in disarray β€” Rate futures price in early-fall hike, Citibank predicts October cut, Bank of America calls for three hikes this year. Strategists warn the market is “schizophrenic.”

  6. South Korea June exports surge β€” Strong semiconductor demand drives trade surplus to potentially surpass $30 billion for the first time.

  7. Offshore CNH HIBOR surges β€” 1-week CNH HIBOR rose to 1.70%, a 5-month high, signaling tighter offshore liquidity.

🧭 Market Assessment

The Japan earthquake adds insult to injury for already fragile Asia-Pacific markets, with the Nikkei’s 5% plunge reflecting concentrated safe-haven sentiment release.

Gold rebounded from intraday low of 3,983 to above 4,000, confirming buying interest below 4,000, but elevated U.S. Treasury yields remain the core headwind.

Apple’s price hike combined with AI cost pressures is the catalyst for this tech sell-off, with memory chip giants Samsung and Hynix bearing the brunt. The semiconductor sector faces near-term pressure.

OpenAI’s IPO delay suggests a significant gap between private market valuation expectations and public market reality, signaling a deteriorating financing environment for high-valuation tech companies.

The Fed’s policy path remains highly uncertain, with coexisting hike and cut expectations set to continue roiling markets and amplifying volatility.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Tonight: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (June) β€” Key inflation expectations indicator
  • Weekend: Monitor Japan earthquake aftermath assessment, Middle East developments
  • Next week: Fed officials’密集 speaking window, June NFP expectations management