Hourly Briefing 2026-06-25 22:16 CST
US initial jobless claims unexpectedly drop to 215K; May PCE returns above 4%; US equities volatile at open, Nasdaq turns negative
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 22:16 CST
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last | Change | Day Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAUUSD | 4016.57 | -0.39% β | 3963.74 β 4033.97 |
| WTI Crude | 71.04 | -0.81% β | 69.47 β 71.22 |
US equities saw violent swings at the open: S&P 500 briefly turned positive before sliding back, Nasdaq -0.62%, Dow +0.44%. Dollar index DXY dropped 10+ points to 101.38, boosting non-US currencies.
Key movers: Apple -5.1%, Nvidia -3%, Dell -9.3%, IBM -2.1%, Cerebras -11% (second consecutive decline). Micron surged +20% intraday before pulling back to +10%.
π₯ Key News This Hour
US initial jobless claims at 215K, well below the 225K forecast, signaling surprising labor market resilience and giving the Fed more room to stay hawkish.
US May PCE inflation returns above 4%, with elevated prices driven by US-Iran conflict impacts. Markets are pricing in stronger odds of Fed rate hikes within the year.
DeepSeek launches major hiring push: plans to double headcount across all departments, including backend engineers, pre-training data engineers, and AI search algorithm roles.
IBM unveils 0.7nm chip technology: Nanostack 3D architecture delivers 50% performance boost and 70% efficiency gains β the first sub-1nm manufacturing breakthrough globally.
Oil rallies 1%+ intraday: WTI above $71, Brent breaking $74, supported by geopolitical and supply concerns.
π§ Market Assessment
The US equity open showed a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern β strong jobless data should be constructive, but markets are fixated on the hot PCE print and its implications for a more hawkish Fed.
Apple down 5%+ and Dell down 9%+ signal broad tech rotation away from high-multiple growth names.
Micron’s retreat from +20% to +10% highlights the tug-of-war in semiconductors β AI storage narrative remains strong but profit-taking pressure is real.
Gold holds the 4000 level but couldn’t breach 4033; multi-day consolidation around this psychological mark continues, tonight’s close matters.
Weaker dollar plus stronger oil favors commodity currencies and crude longs, but a hawkish Fed surprise could flip this dynamic quickly.
DeepSeek’s aggressive hiring confirms Chinese AI competition is intensifying; compute demand continues its upward trajectory.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 22:30 US June Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
- Next day 02:00 Fed officials speaking (TBD)
- Next day 04:30 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet