π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 21:15 CST
US Q1 GDP revised up to 2.1%; May PCE back above 4%; Tesla expands Berlin plant output by 20%
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 21:15 CST
π Market Snapshot
Gold $4,030.73/oz β0.74% (range $3,963.74β$4,033.97) Intraday high at $4,033.97, silver up 2%, futures gold at $4,049.
WTI Crude $70.580/bbl β0.156% (range $69.470β$70.780) Narrow range trading, no clear direction after Iraq “exit” rumor denied.
China night session mostly lower: TSR2 rubber -2%, iron ore -1%; tin +2%, LPG/nickel +1%.
π₯ Key News This Hour
β’ US Q1 GDP final estimate revised up to 2.1% (prior 1.6%) β Economic resilience exceeded expectations, reinforcing soft-landing narrative.
β’ Initial jobless claims at 215K, below forecast, layoffs remain at low levels, labor market stays tight.
β’ May PCE inflation back in the “4-handle” β Stubborn price pressure raises hawkish risk for the Fed this year.
β’ Tesla Berlin factory expansion: Weekly output to reach 7,500 units from October (+20%), 1,000 new hires announced.
β’ Apple raises MacBook and iPad prices β AI datacenter buildout drives memory chip cost surge; Apple says it can no longer absorb costs.
β’ EU held talks with White House over Anthropic access β AI regulatory battle escalates after Mythos access cutoff.
β’ Russia and Romania expel diplomats β Drone incident triggers diplomatic standoff.
π§ Assessment
Q1 GDP revision plus low claims paint a strong economic picture, but PCE rebounding above 4% directly undermines the rate-cut narrative, leaving the Fed trapped between strong growth and sticky inflation.
Gold and silver rebounded today but the medium-term outlook remains under pressure from rising rate expectations and easing geopolitical tensions β the risk of further pullback from highs persists.
Crude oil trades amid OPEC internal fractures; the Iraq “exit” rumor was denied but exposed structural rifts, adding supply-side uncertainty.
Tesla’s expansion signals are positive, while Apple’s forced price hikes underscore how AI-driven compute demand continues to disrupt supply chains β expect widening tech sector divergence.
β° Upcoming Key Data
β’ 6/25 (tonight): US initial jobless claims β came in at 215K, below prior β’ 6/26 (Fri): US May PCE price index β came in above 4% β’ 6/26 (Fri): US June Michigan consumer sentiment final β’ Next week: China June PMI, multiple Fed speakers