Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 19:12 CST
Iraq oil ministry denies OPEC exit; Israel partial withdrawal from southern Lebanon disputed; Iran Quds Force commander threatens Israel
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 19:12 CST
π Market Overview
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold XAUUSD | 3984.30 | -0.42% |
| WTI Crude USOIL | 69.960 | -0.72% |
| S&P 500 SPX | 7358.22 | -0.10% |
Gold remains under pressure below $4,000, dipping to an intraday low of $3,963.74. Continued weakness after losing the $4,000 psychological level signals eroding bullish confidence.
WTI crude slipped below the $70 handle to $69.96, down from $70.06 an hour ago. OPEC internal divisions and Middle East geopolitical developments keep crude under pressure at this critical inflection point.
π₯ Key Developments This Hour
Iraq Oil Ministry Officially Denies OPEC Exit β Following media reports that Iraq was “considering quitting OPEC,” the ministry issued a formal denial. However, an Iraqi official had earlier stated the government was “evaluating all viable options including withdrawal.” The denial may paper over genuine discontent over production quota allocations.
Israel-Lebanon Withdrawal Dispute Intensifies β The US confirmed Israel has partially withdrawn from “buffer zones” in southern Lebanon as a diplomatic gesture. However, Lebanese security officials say they have not observed large-scale ground withdrawals. Iran’s Quds Force commander responded with a sharp threat: if Israel does not voluntarily withdraw today, it will be forced to flee tomorrow.
IBM Unveils 0.7nm Chip Technology β IBM announced the world’s first sub-1nm chip manufacturing breakthrough using a 0.7nm Nanostack 3D architecture, delivering 50% performance gains and 70% energy efficiency improvements. A landmark in semiconductor process technology.
Morgan Stanley Upgrades Qualcomm β Morgan Stanley upgraded QCOM from “Underweight” to “Equal Weight,” raising the price target dramatically from $146 to $231.
TD COWEN Raises Micron Target to $1,600 β TD COWEN raised its MU price target from $1,500 to $1,600, citing continued strength in HBM and AI memory demand.
Brazil Central Bank Raises GDP Forecast β Brazil’s central bank revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast upward from 1.6% to 2.0%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic resilience.
π§ Outlook
Gold has lost the $4,000 level and it now acts as resistance; near-term support sits at $3,950-$3,960.
The OPEC situation took a dramatic turn with Iraq’s official denial, but the underlying tensions over quota distribution remain unresolved. The credibility of the denial will be tested.
The Israel-Lebanon withdrawal controversy adds a new layer of geopolitical uncertainty. Iran’s bellicose rhetoric raises escalation risks, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a potential oil price catalyst.
On the tech front, IBM’s chip breakthrough and multiple analyst upgrades in semiconductors provide fundamental support for the AI compute theme, partially offsetting broader market weakness.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- July 1 (Wed) early AM β USDA Planting Acres Report; market expects increased soybean acreage
- BOJ Rate Decision Watch β Japanese government drafting stimulus blueprint to pressure BOJ into pausing rate hikes
- Japan FX Intervention β Market consensus that intervention threshold is near; analysts expect rapid action once clear USD weakening signal emerges