Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 18:10 CST
Gold drops below 4000 to 6-month low; Iraq threatens OPEC exit; EU eyes DMA regulation for Microsoft and Amazon cloud services
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 18:10 CST
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold XAUUSD | 3986.66 | -0.36% |
| WTI Crude USOIL | 70.06 | -0.58% |
Gold breached below the 4000 psychological level intraday, hitting 3963.74 β the first time below 4000 since November 2025. Down nearly 30% from its all-time high of 5598 earlier this year, wiping out over 1600 in six months.
WTI crude hovers near the 70 level with a low of 69.47. OPEC internal fractures continue to simmer, with Iraq and the UAE escalating dissatisfaction over quota allocation.
π₯ Key Headlines This Hour
Gold Falls Back to “3” Range β Spot gold breached 4000 overnight, hitting a low of 3958/oz, its first sub-4000 reading since November 2025. Down nearly 30% from the 5598 all-time high. Market debating whether this is a bull market termination or a deep correction.
Iraq Threatens OPEC Exit β Following the UAE, Iraq β OPEC’s second-largest producer β issued an “ultimatum” to Saudi allies: grant increased quotas or face an exit evaluation. Iraq is under fiscal pressure from the Iran conflict and demanding a redistribution of production quotas.
EU Moves to Regulate Microsoft & Amazon Cloud Under DMA β EU preliminary findings suggest Amazon and Microsoft cloud services should be designated under the Digital Markets Act (DMA). Microsoft said it will continue constructive dialogue with the Commission.
UK CBI Retail Data Deteriorates Sharply β UK June CBI retail sales balance plunged to -54, from -46 prior, signaling deepening consumer confidence weakness.
UBS Sees Brent at $80-85 Through 2027 β UBS maintains Brent forecasts of $85/bbl for Q4 2026 and $80/bbl for Q1-Q2 2027, arguing production recovery will be slower than market consensus expects.
Iran Oil Minister Speaks at BRICS Energy Forum β Iranian Oil Minister Paknejad discussed Chabahar port cooperation with India at the BRICS energy conference and called for withdrawal of foreign military forces from West Asia.
π§ Market Assessment
Gold breaking below 4000 represents a critical psychological level breach, severely damaging bullish sentiment in the near term.
From the 5598 all-time high, the ~30% drawdown puts gold in technical bear territory, with the next support zone at 3900-3950.
OPEC’s internal fissures are widening. If Iraq and the UAE’s “exit” threats materialize, it would significantly undermine production cut discipline and exert downward pressure on oil.
Crude consolidating near 70 reflects the tug-of-war between OPEC internal discord and tightening medium-term supply expectations. 70 remains the key battleground level.
EU DMA regulation of tech giants, if enacted, would have far-reaching implications for cloud market competition dynamics β worth tracking closely.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- July 1 (Wed) early AM β USDA Planted Acreage Report; market expects US soybean acreage increase
- BOJ Rate Decision Watch β Japanese government drafting fiscal stimulus blueprint pressuring BOJ; rate hike pause signals emerging
- Japan FX Intervention β Analysts warn intervention red line is near; once USD shows clear weakness, Japan’s MOF could act swiftly