πŸ“° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 17:09 CST

πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

AssetLastChangeRange
πŸ₯‡ Gold (XAUUSD)3,993.28-7.75 (-0.19%)3,963.74 – 4,018.66
πŸ›’οΈ WTI Crude69.870-0.600 (-0.85%)69.610 – 70.780

Gold pulled back slightly after touching 4018 intraday, consolidating around the 4000 handle. Oil declined below 70 as Trump’s erratic tariff and geopolitical rhetoric continued to weigh on sentiment.

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. [BREAKING] Japan Govt Drafts “Easing Blueprint,” Demands BOJ Pause Rate Hikes

    • A leaked government draft calls for the BOJ to halt rate increases after just hitting a 31-year high. The political-central bank standoff has gone public, raising questions about BOJ independence.

  2. UK Cuts Steel Import Duty-Free Quota by 51%, Effective July 1

    • Imports above quota face a 50% tariff. The existing safeguard measure and 25% surcharge expire June 30, replaced by the new, stricter regime. A protectionist escalation.

  3. SK Hynix Plans US ADR Listing, Aiming to Raise ~$30 Billion

    • Analystsηœ‹ε₯½ valuation convergence with Micron given HBM leadership and US market liquidity premium. A-share memory chip stocks rallied; Demingli hit daily limit.

  4. Goldman Sachs: Inflation Roadmap Shows PCE Near Fed Target by 2027

    • Base case: core PCE disinflation begins June. Downward revision to commodity price forecasts is the key driver.

  5. ECB to Phase Out Emergency Collateral Measures

    • Non-financial credit claims to be incorporated into general collateral framework. Implementation targeted for Nov 2027 at the earliest. Normalization continues.

  6. EU Transfers First €3.2B Tranche to Ukraine

    • Ukrainian PM says over 160 agreements worth €10B+ expected within two days.

  7. Israel Withdraws from Parts of Southern Lebanon Buffer Zone

    • US State Dept calls it a “goodwill gesture” to the Lebanese government. Lebanese armed forces should immediately deploy to vacated areas.

  8. Hong Kong May Trade Data: Exports +40.8%, Imports +42.0% YoY

    • Re-exports remain robust, reflecting strong transit trade through the territory.

🧭 Analysis

Japan’s government openly pressuring the BOJ to pause tightening is a development of global significance. If Japan reverses its policy trajectory, the implications for global liquidity expectations are profound β€” carry trades could re-activate en masse.

The UK’s 51% quota cut on steel imports exceeds expectations. European protectionism is accelerating, with knock-on effects for global supply chains and inflation pass-through.

Oil breaking below 70 is technically weak. Trump’s unpredictable tariff and geopolitical commentary prevents the market from forming a consensus view, keeping volatility elevated.

Gold is seesawing around the 4000 psychological level with rising bull-bear divergence. If the Japan “easing” narrative gains traction, both safe-haven and liquidity tailwinds could push gold to new highs.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • πŸ“… Jun 26 (Fri): China CCPIT 4th Chain Expo Closing Press Conference β€” 15:00 CST
  • πŸ“… Jul 1 (Wed): USDA Acreage Report β€” 00:00 CST