đ° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 16:08 CST
Gold dips below 3990 as PCE data looms; Rubio tough on Hormuz; ICBC flags precious metals volatility risk
đ° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 16:08 CST
đ Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD 3,989.09 (-0.30%), intraday high 4,018.66, low 3,963.74 â retreating over $29 from morning highs
- WTI Crude USOIL 70.340 (-0.18%), intraday high 70.78, low 69.62 â trading in a narrow range
đĽ Key News This Hour
- ăICBC Issues Precious Metals Volatility WarningăIndustrial and Commercial Bank of China flagged significant recent volatility in international precious metals markets, recommending long-term rational investment allocation
- ăUS May PCE Data Due Tonight at 20:30 CSTăThe Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show a notable uptick â could become the key catalyst for gold price action in coming days
- ăRubio Takes Hard Line on Hormuz StraităUS Secretary of State called the strait international waters, stated that any toll would set an unacceptable precedent, and rejected any claim of sovereignty over it
- ăGoldman Sachs Inflation RoadmapăLowered commodity price forecasts, expects headline PCE inflation to normalize starting in June; baseline scenario sees inflation near the Fed’s target by 2027
- ăIraq Plans Oil Output ExpansionăIraqi government says it is working to restore full export capacity, targeting 7 million barrels per day in the coming years
- ăUK and France Break Temperature RecordsăUK recorded its hottest June day ever â 36.1°C in Gosport, southern England â as an early heatwave sweeps Western Europe
- ăTrump Demands “Absolute Loyalty”ăTrump revealed he wouldn’t attend the NATO summit if not for Erdogan’s request, publicly calling out four core European allies for disloyalty
- ăTrump’s Tweets Push Oil Back to Pre-War LevelsăRepeated verbal pressure on oil markets has driven prices back down, with traders lamenting “you can price in risk, but not Trump’s tweets”
đ§ Market Assessment
Tonight’s PCE print is the pivotal variable â consensus expects an inflation uptick, and a beat would reinforce rate hike bets, capping any gold rebound.
Gold retreated from 4,018 to below 3,990, technically under short-term pressure, but 3,963 provides support; watch for directional clarity post-PCE.
ICBC’s rare volatility warning signals regulatory concern about retail chasing highs â near-term profit-taking pressure is building.
Rubio’s hardline stance on the Strait of Hormuz could reignite geopolitical risk premia, offering upside for crude.
Iraq’s plan to expand output to 7 million bpd adds medium-term downside risk to oil if OPEC coordination fractures.
â° Upcoming Key Data
- Tonight 20:30 CST â US May PCE Price Index (the Fed’s top inflation gauge â highest priority)
- July 1 (Wed) 00:00 CST â USDA Acreage Report (soybean planting area expected to increase)