πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • πŸ₯‡ Gold (XAUUSD): 3,996.12 (-0.12%), day high 4,018.66, low 3,963.74 β€” rebounded from 3,985 in prior hour, holding above 3,990
  • πŸ›’ WTI Crude: 69.89 (-0.82%), day high 70.78, low 69.62 β€” further weakness as oversupply narrative persists post-Hormuz reopening
  • πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Japan 20Y bond yield down 1.5bp to 3.55%; auction bid ratio at 2.97 β€” weakest since May 2025
  • πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China A-shares AM close: STAR 50 +4.18% (storage chips, securities strong); SSE +0.36%, SZSE +1.46%

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Wall Street consensus: May PCE inflation expected to rise β€” Markets expect May PCE to show notable increases in both MoM and YoY vs. April. Data releases tomorrow (Friday 20:30 Beijing time) and is the Fed’s most closely watched inflation gauge β€” the result will directly influence rate cut expectations.

  2. BOJ hawk Tamura: hike every few months by 25bp β€” Tamura Naoki stated the baseline path is to hike 25bp every few months targeting the 2% neutral rate, with potential to increase frequency if inflation risks intensify. Same day, Japan’s 20-year JGB auction saw the weakest demand since May 2025 (bid ratio 2.97 vs 4.01 in May).

  3. Venezuela earthquake aftermath: Trump pledges US aid ready β€” Following the dual 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude earthquakes, Trump posted that the US is ready, willing, and able to provide assistance, instructing all government agencies to prepare for rapid action. Initial reports indicate heavy casualties.

  4. Gold & Silver ETF holdings report released β€” Today’s ETF positioning data published; markets monitoring institutional fund flows for signals on medium-term precious metals direction.

  5. Thailand May trade deficit narrows β€” May customs-cleared trade deficit at $5.71B vs Reuters estimate of $6.12B deficit. Commerce ministry projects 8% export growth for the full year.

  6. Indonesia nickel quota decision deferred β€” Indonesia’s mining ministry says 2026 full-year nickel production quota remains undecided, contrary to market rumors of an increase. Decision pending is neutral-to-supportive for nickel prices.

🧭 Analysis

Gold rebounded from $3,985 to $3,996, indicating strong buying interest near the $3,963 intraday low β€” the bulls have not abandoned the $4,000 psychological level.

Crude oil continued sliding to $69.89, with the post-Hormuz oversupply narrative still dominant. Angola crude discounts at decade-highs and full Asian refinery inventories suggest limited near-term upside for oil.

Tomorrow’s PCE data is the key catalyst. Markets have already priced in rising inflation β€” if actual figures meet or exceed expectations, Fed rate cut expectations will be further delayed, reinforcing the strong-dollar, pressured-gold dynamic.

Japan’s hawkish BOJ rhetoric combined with the weak 20Y JGB auction signals that the transmission of Japan’s rate hike path is reaching the bond market in earnest, sustaining medium-term yen appreciation expectations.

China’s STAR 50 surged 4.18% in the morning session, led by storage chips riding the Micron earnings tailwind β€” short-term sentiment is clearly improving, but afternoon profit-taking pressure warrants watching.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tonight: US Q1 GDP Final Estimate (20:30 Beijing time)
  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tonight: US Initial Jobless Claims (20:30 Beijing time)
  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tonight: US Pending Home Sales Index (22:00 Beijing time)
  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tomorrow (Fri): US May PCE Price Index (20:30 β€” Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tomorrow (Fri): US May Personal Income & Spending (20:30)