πŸ“° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 11:01 CST

πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • πŸ₯‡ Gold (XAUUSD): 3,985.04 (-0.40%), day high 4,018.66, day low 3,963.74 β€” consolidating after early pullback
  • πŸ›’ WTI Crude: 69.97 (-0.71%), day high 70.78, day low 69.63 β€” supply glut fears weigh post-Hormuz reopening
  • πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ A-Shares: CSI 300 turnover exceeds Β₯2T for 53rd consecutive day; ChiNext reversed earlier 2%+ gain to close in the red; Baijiu sector rallied, Jiugui Liquor hit daily limit
  • πŸ’° Lithium carbonate: Main contract -3.18% to Β₯154,520/ton, Β₯22.3B turnover, volatile session

πŸ”₯ Key Headlines This Hour

  1. Hormuz Strait reopens β€” oil erases wartime gains β€” Tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf for months began exiting through the strait after the US-Iran deal. Kpler data signals global crude swinging abruptly from tight to surplus. Angolan crude discounts hit a decade high (~$10/bbl). Asian refiners already at full inventory through August. WTI broke below $70.

  2. IRGC vs Trump on Hormuz transit fees β€” Iran’s IRGC declared all transit must follow designated Iranian routes and require approval, warning of “action” for violations. Trump same day drew a hard line: any transit fees are “unacceptable.” Geosphysical standoff continues beneath the surface.

  3. JPMorgan raises S&P 500 year-end target to 7,800 β€” Up from 7,600, citing the market approaching an upside scenario. Strategists note a broad-based earnings revision cycle is underway.

  4. Micron earnings “bomb” β€” +14% after hours β€” Beat on revenue and EPS; guided above consensus; disclosed four long-term locked-price agreements with a “mega customer.” AI skeptics silenced overnight after days of tech selling pressure.

  5. SK Hynix targets July 10 Nasdaq IPO at $29.6B β€” Could rank among the top 3 largest IPOs in history, proceeds earmarked for AI capacity expansion. Semiconductor capex cycle accelerating.

  6. CATL subsidiary adds EV sales to business scope β€” Suzhou Shidai Xin’an registered scope expansion to include new energy vehicle sales, used car brokerage. CATL’s auto ambitions broaden further.

🧭 Outlook

The Hormuz reopening is the dominant variable this session β€” oil’s selloff is logical as the supply gap closes fast.

But the IRGC’s hardline stance means free passage is far from guaranteed; geopolitical risk premium could snap back at any headline, providing a floor under crude.

Gold’s modest pullback holding near 3,980 signals persistent safe-haven demand β€” bulls and bears remain locked in a standoff.

A-share ChiNext’s intraday reversal suggests profit-taking pressure at higher levels, but sustained Β₯2T+ turnover reflects active capital; expect range-bound trading near-term.

Micron’s blowout earnings should provide a catalyst for US tech tonight β€” watch for sympathy moves across the semiconductor supply chain.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tonight: US Q1 GDP Final Estimate (20:30 Beijing)
  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tonight: US Initial Jobless Claims (20:30 Beijing)
  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tonight: US Pending Home Sales Index (22:00 Beijing)
  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tomorrow: US May PCE Price Index (Friday 20:30 β€” the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)