π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 10:00 CST
Gold drops below 4000, crude oil turns from shortage to surplus after Hormuz reopening; Venezuela hit by consecutive major earthquakes
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-25 10:00 CST
π Market Snapshot
- π₯ Spot Gold 3,976.85 (-0.60%), dropped below 4000 level, intraday low 3,972.67
- π’οΈ WTI Crude 69.90 (-0.81%), intraday low 69.68, oversupply pressure persists after Hormuz reopening
- π¨π³ China A-shares bounce at open: ChiNext +2%, STAR50 +3%, advanced packaging & semiconductors leading
- ππ° HK stocks diverge: insurers drop 2%+ across the board, AI-related stocks gain
π₯ Key Headlines This Hour
- Venezuela hit by consecutive major earthquakes: Acting president declared nationwide school suspension and state of emergency; MaiquetΓa airport shut down. A 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude quake struck back-to-back with significant casualties expected
- Oil market flips from shortage to surplus after Hormuz reopening: Angola crude discount at decade-high, nearly $10/barrel below benchmark; Asian refineries fully stocked through August, global crude supply glut signals everywhere
- BOJ Tamura Naoki: Neutral rate target around 2%, should approach it soon via hikes every few months
- Micron crushes earnings, silences AI bubble skeptics: Beats on revenue and guidance, stock surges 14% after hours; disclosed four long-term locked-price agreements with “mega customers”
π§ Market Assessment
Gold breaking below 4000 marks a critical shift in the near-term goldilocks narrative. Bessent’s strong-dollar rhetoric combined with easing Iran tensions has rapidly eroded the geopolitical premium.
The Hormuz reopening flips the crude supply-demand script entirely. Oversupply signals are multiplying β expect WTI to test the 68-69 range in coming sessions.
A-shares show a technical bounce after days of selling, led by semicon and advanced packaging. But volume confirmation remains thin β don’t chase the first green candle.
Venezuela’s earthquake has limited direct impact on global energy supply but adds instability to an already fragile Latin American region.
BOJ hawkishness is now explicit. If rate hikes proceed as Tamura suggests, a stronger yen will pressure global carry trades and risk assets.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Tonight 20:30 CST: US Initial Jobless Claims
- Tonight 22:00 CST: US May Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales
- Continue monitoring US-Iran Hormuz follow-up negotiations