π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-06-25
Bessent reiterates strong dollar policy, gold dips below $4,000; Fed stress test: all 32 banks pass; Hormuz strait evacuation deal reached; Japan/Korea stocks rally.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold XAUUSD | 4,002.59 | -0.04% | Bounced after dipping below $4,000 overnight |
| WTI Crude USOIL | 70.65 | +0.26% | Stabilizing near pre-war levels |
- Asia Open: Nikkei 225 opened +1.4% at 70,114; KOSPI surged +5.5%, triggering the sidecar circuit breaker. SK Hynix +11%, Samsung +5%. ASX 200 dipped -0.31%.
- FX: Bessent reiterates strong dollar policy, USD index strengthens, pressuring precious metals.
- Commodities: Silver crashed -8% at one point overnight; $12 billion in gold outflows pushed price below $4,000.
π₯ Key Overnight Headlines
US-Iran: Hormuz Strait Developments
- Trump says Iran has assured the US it is not charging transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Will unfreeze some Iranian assets for US agricultural purchases (corn, wheat, soybeans).
- IMO reveals Hormuz evacuation plan: Iran, US, and Oman will coordinate navigation to evacuate over 10,000 stranded seafarers. Energy transport partially restored.
- Trump clashes with Republican senators at lunch, sparking intra-party tensions over Iran war stance.
- Bessent: Unfrozen Iranian assets will be tightly monitored, earmarked for US products; oil sales must be denominated in USD.
Fed & Banking
- Fed annual stress test: All 32 major banks pass, collectively absorbing over $708 billion in losses β all above regulatory thresholds. Wall Street dividend/buyback wave expected.
- JPMorgan: Markets now pricing in two Fed rate hikes by early 2027; USD pushing precious metals off their pedestal.
Geopolitics & Disasters
- Venezuela hit by a 7.5-magnitude earthquake offshore (following a 7.1 quake), with USGS warning of potential casualties and widespread damage.
π§ Situation Assessment
Gold breaking below $4,000 breached a key psychological level for short-term bulls, but support around $4,000 is holding and selling momentum is fading.
The Fed stress test clearing all 32 banks is a clear positive for bank stocks, but watch for a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction.
Hormuz tensions are easing with the evacuation deal and transit fee denial β oil faces short-term pressure, but geopolitical premium hasn’t fully unwound.
Japan and Korea’s explosive open reflects bullish pricing on US-Iran de-escalation, but the magnitude of gains warrants caution for intraday pullbacks; Korea’s sidecar trigger is itself an overheating signal.
Strong dollar plus rate hike expectations remain the core headwind for gold. Silver’s 8% crash shows the precious metals complex is deleveraging, with gold relatively resilient but facing medium-term pressure.
π Economic Calendar Today
No major data releases scheduled for June 25. Key items to watch:
- Watch for any revision to US Q1 GDP final estimate
- Global PMI flash readings already released β watch for eurozone/US final readings
- Venezuela earthquake aftermath assessment (potential oil supply implications)
Later this week: US PCE inflation, personal income/spending, initial jobless claims β critical window for gauging the Fed’s next move.