πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

Gold (XAUUSD) β€” $4,055.83 | ↓1.31%

  • Opened at 4,113.20 β†’ low of 4,050.50, down $53.85 on the day
  • Iran tensions easing + Hormuz Strait reopening expectations weigh on safe-haven demand

WTI Crude (USOIL) β€” $72.36 | ↓1.77%

  • Opened at 73.77 β†’ low of 72.14; Brent has fallen back to pre-war levels
  • Strait reopening expectations combined with Middle East production restart pressure

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Hormuz Strait Free Passage Talks Launch β€” Qatar’s PM arrived in Muscat to initiate negotiations with Oman, Iran, GCC, and Iraq on the strait’s reopening and future operations. Gulf states are pushing for toll-free passage β€” if realized, a major bearish factor for crude.

  2. Israel Refuses Lebanon Withdrawal β€” Israel’s Defense Minister stated unequivocally that Israeli forces will not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demands it. Lebanon’s PM countered that negotiating in Washington is the lowest-cost path, demanding full Israeli withdrawal. Positions remain sharply opposed.

  3. Iran Refuses IAEA Chief Meeting β€” Iran’s Deputy FM said IAEA Director General Grossi’s request for a meeting in Switzerland was not honored, with no arrangements made for accessing struck facilities or nuclear materials. Nuke negotiations remain uncertain.

  4. US-Iran Interim Understanding Extends Ceasefire β€” US and Iran reached an interim understanding extending the ceasefire, easing geopolitical risk and further boosting expectations of Hormuz Strait traffic resumption.

  5. EU Set to Approve Paramount-Warner Bros Merger β€” The FT reports the EU is about to approve Paramount’s $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros.

🧭 Outlook

Gold has retreated from $4,115 to around $4,050, down over 1.3%, signaling that geopolitical premium is rapidly unwinding. The Hormuz free-passage talks are today’s most critical new variable β€” if implemented, a major bearish catalyst for crude. Israel’s hardline stance on Lebanon directly contradicts Beirut’s demands, keeping the Middle East peace outlook fragile. Iran’s non-cooperation on the nuclear front warrants close attention; any breakdown could reignite safe-haven bids. Tonight’s Micron earnings is the biggest US equity event β€” a 14% expected swing has major implications for semis and AI.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Tonight (US ET) β€” Micron (MU) earnings, market expects 14% post-earnings move
  • June 26 (Thu) β€” US Q1 GDP (Final)
  • June 27 (Fri) β€” US May Core PCE Price Index
  • June 28 β€” OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting