πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD) β€” $4,076.02 ↓0.82%, intraday low hit $4,050.50; retreated significantly from open of $4,113.20, bears in control
  • WTI Crude (USOIL) β€” $72.60 ↓1.44%, intraday low $72.29; under sustained pressure in European session
  • USD/CNH (Onshore) β€” 6.8052, down 187 pips from previous close
  • UK 10Y Gilt Yield β€” 4.722%, lowest in 2.5 months

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. SK Hynix to raise $29B+ via Nasdaq listing β€” Targeting July 10 launch; Samsung and Micron as underwriters. If successful, it will be the largest overseas equity raise by a Korean company, signaling continued AI storage capital inflows
  2. Germany scraps F126 frigate project, opts for 8 MEKO-class ships β€” Rheinmetall shares down 15%; European defense sector under pressure
  3. Qatar PM: LNG capacity to resume within weeks β€” Stressed that US-Iran communication hotline is critical for reopening the Strait of Hormuz; energy markets watching supply recovery pace
  4. Lebanese President: Efforts underway to consolidate southern ceasefire β€” Middle East tensions remain delicate
  5. Morgan Stanley: Q3 TTF gas price forecast ~€50/MWh, Q4 ~€60/MWh β€” Expects Qatar LNG restart path to become clearer
  6. Market poses the “soul-searching question” again: Can AI investments actually deliver returns? β€” Micron’s after-hours earnings (market expects 14% price swing, equivalent to $150B+ market cap move) is the critical test for AI valuation thesis

🧭 Outlook

Gold has retreated to the $4,050 support level; short-term topping pattern is evident above $4,100, and a break below $4,050 could trigger further downside.

Crude oil continues its slide, with expectations of Qatar LNG supply resuming within weeks weighing on energy prices. However, actual Hormuz Strait navigation remains constrained by hull barnacle removal, mine clearance, and Iranian registration procedures β€” the supply recovery timeline carries meaningful uncertainty.

US tech stocks remain under pressure from elevated rates and AI return skepticism. Tonight’s Micron earnings is the key catalyst that will set direction β€” it’s a make-or-break moment for the AI trade.

Germany’s defense project reshuffling rattled the European defense sector, reflecting lingering divisions over the continent’s military spending trajectory.

Middle East shows tentative de-escalation signals (Lebanon ceasefire consolidation, Qatar LNG recovery), but Russia-US tensions are elevated. Geopolitical risk has not fully dissipated.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • Tonight β€” Micron (MU) after-hours earnings: the litmus test for the AI storage bull thesis
  • This week β€” Qatar LNG actual resumption progress; Hormuz Strait navigation status