πŸ“° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-24 11:00 CST

πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold XAUUSD 4,062.56 (-1.15%), down another $25 from 10:00, cumulative intraday drop exceeding $50, broke below $4,060
  • WTI Crude 72.770 (-1.21%), down $0.49 from 10:00, broke below $73 as Hormuz reopening expectations persist
  • A-Share computing leasing sector strengthened; Hongjing Tech surged 17%+ to new highs, Mai Xinlin up 11%+
  • Shanghai-Shenzhen turnover exceeded CNY 1.5 trillion for 226 consecutive trading days, but volume shrank CNY 255 billion vs. prior day

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

SoftBank’s Son β€” Multiple Headlines:

  • 🚨 Declared “AI is not a bubble”; announced company has begun mass-producing AI robots via physical AI factory
  • Disclosed upcoming NVIDIA & Apple deals driving Intel’s market cap surge; Intel’s manufacturing role deemed critical to US national security
  • Intel (INTC) shares likely to respond positively in pre-market

Gold Accelerates Decline:

  • 🚨 Spot gold down $50+ intraday, touched 4,052 low; bank gold bar prices dropped across the board, Chow Tai Seng largest drop at CNY 37/gram
  • Cross-market selling pressure continues to overwhelm safe-haven bid

US-Iran Policy Standoff:

  • Trump blasts Senate war powers resolution as “giving Iran comfort” and making negotiations harder
  • Follows Congress’s historic passage of Iran withdrawal resolution yesterday

Institutional Views:

  • 🏦 UBS: Debunks market’s aggressive rate hike pricing β€” none of the three hard conditions for a hike are met; baseline view is Fed holds rates steady long-term, pivoting to cuts in 2027
  • 🏦 Allianz: First to quantify Hormuz blockade cost β€” 1,200+ vessels, $125B in goods trapped in the Gulf for over 100 days
  • 🏦 Daiwa upgrades Geely to “Buy,” raises target to HK$27, citing brand upgrade and overseas expansion

Domestic Policy:

  • Jiangxi state-owned assets established a CNY 2 billion technology innovation guidance fund
  • Three ministries jointly implement 2026 first-set major technical equipment insurance compensation policy

🧭 Situation Assessment

Gold broke below $4,060, down $50+ intraday β€” bearish momentum is clearly strengthening, not stabilizing.

ANZ earlier identified cross-market selling pressure as the driver; that logic continues to dominate price action and there’s no sign of a floor yet.

SoftBank’s Son’s bullish AI + Intel remarks, combined with rumored NVIDIA/Apple deals, could provide a short-term catalyst for INTC β€” worth watching in US pre-market.

UBS’s contrarian view on rates is notable: if the Fed indeed holds steady through 2027, the current dollar strength and gold pressure thesis reverses. This is a medium-term trade setup.

Crude continues drifting lower β€” geopolitical easing plus macro hawkishness is a double weight. Allianz’s Hormuz data shows the blockade’s damage was real, but with shipping resuming, supply pressure is easing.

A-share turnover shrinking but still above CNY 1.5T β€” capital rotating into AI hardware (computing leasing) while broader market consolidates. Style rotation in progress.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 16:00 Germany June IFO Business Climate Index
  • 22:00 US June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Week ending June 20)