πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

Precious Metals

  • Gold XAUUSD: 4144.02 (-1.15%), intraday range 4130.79–4198.19, broke below 4150 support
  • Silver: $63.14/oz (-3%), Shanghai silver futures plunged 5%+

Crude Oil

  • WTI Crude: 74.250 (-0.59%), intraday range 74.190–75.060

Asia-Pacific Equities

  • South Korea KOSPI: 8563.40 (-6.00%), circuit breaker triggered
  • MSCI Asia-Pacific: -2%
  • A-shares: Shanghai Composite -0.37%, Shenzhen Component -1.83%, ChiNext -2.27%
  • India NIFTY IT: -1.78%

Equity Futures

  • Nasdaq 100 futures: -1%+
  • S&P 500 futures: -0.5%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures: -0.7%

FX

  • Offshore CNH overnight HIBOR surged to 1.658% (4-month high)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6970 (lowest since April 8, -0.44%)
  • Thai Baht: 33.095 (lowest since May 2025)

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. South Korea KOSPI crashes 6%, triggering circuit breaker; foreign investors dump $1.3B South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged 6%, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism. The AI chip rally had been extremely stretched β€” SK Hynix had just overtaken Samsung as the most valuable company before the collapse. Leveraged ETFs amplified the panic, and regulators are preparing market stabilization measures.

2. Alphabet sheds $225B in market cap as AI talent exodus sparks concern Alphabet’s single-day decline triggered a massive market cap wipeout. The continuous departure of core AI team members has become the market’s main narrative, prompting investors to reassess its position in the frontier model competition.

3. Middle East peace progress: US grants Iran 60-day oil export license The US has issued Iran a 60-day license to sell oil on international markets, signaling progress in Middle East peace negotiations. Aluminum hit a three-month low as markets expect Middle Eastern supply to gradually recover.

4. Israel fears US is “empowering Iran” on Lebanon issue The Israeli government is concerned the US is legitimizing Iran’s influence in Lebanon through a new US-Iran consensus, with a new conflict elimination mechanism excluding Israel.

5. Japan-US finance ministers hold late-night FX talks, yen approaches 162 Japan and US finance ministers discussed exchange rates, putting traders on high alert for intervention. Japanese retail traders have flipped from short to long, betting on government action, while hedge funds hold the opposite position.

6. Greenspan passes away at 100 Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has died at age 100. His legacy remains debated β€” is it a treasure or a trap for current Fed Chair沃什?

🧭 Market Assessment

Asia-Pacific markets are in bloodbath mode. South Korea’s KOSPI crashing 6% and triggering the circuit breaker is textbook AI chip bubble deflation β€” SK Hynix literally just became the most valuable company before collapsing, with leveraged ETFs amplifying the panic.

Alphabet’s $225B single-day wipeout combined with AI talent exodus is forcing a re-evaluation of tech valuation logic. Nasdaq 100 futures are down over 1%, so tonight’s US market open faces significant pressure.

Middle East peace progress is a double-edged sword: the US granting Iran an oil export license is pressuring crude and aluminum prices, but Israel’s concerns suggest geopolitical risks haven’t truly subsided.

Gold broke below 4150, falling over $60 from near 4200 intraday. Safe-haven sentiment is paradoxically weakening amid risk-asset selling β€” the market may be in panic-sell-everything-for-cash mode.

The offshore CNH overnight HIBOR surging to a 4-month high is a liquidity tightening signal worth monitoring closely.

Tonight’s focus: US market reaction at open and Fed officials’ remarks.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Tonight: US market open (21:30 CST)
  • Watch: Fed officials’ remarks, Micron earnings (market expects 12% post-earnings volatility)
  • Ongoing: Korean regulatory stabilization measures, Middle East peace negotiations