📰 Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-06-23

📰 Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-06-23

📊 Market Snapshot

• 🥇 Spot Gold $4,189.08 (-0.08%), trading in a narrow $4,187-$4,195 range
• 🛢️ WTI Crude $74.79 (+0.13%), touched $75 before pulling back
• Silver ETF added 84.4t overnight; Gold ETF added 1.71t — fund flows remain bullish

🔥 Overnight Key News

US-Iran Negotiations — Historic Breakthrough:

• US Treasury announced a policy reversal allowing Iran to sell oil in USD, including to US buyers, for a 60-day period — the first such move in decades
• VP Vance stated Iran has agreed to allow IAEA inspectors to return, seen as a critical step toward ending its nuclear program
• Iran’s Deputy FM disclosed a new high-level committee will supervise technical negotiations going forward
• 400+ ships remain stranded east of the strait; shipping giants have not fully resumed transit
• Danske Bank forecasts 2026 Brent average at $80/bbl; Barclays maintains $100 forecast

Canada Inflation Surprise:

• May CPI YoY 3.2% (est. 3.0%), MoM 1.0% (est. 0.8%), core CPI also ran hot
• Bank of Canada rate cut expectations likely pushed further out

Wall Street:

• Five major banks in rare agreement: short-term gold upside limited, gold price now deeply tied to rate hike probability
• ECB’s Lagarde: inflation shock cannot be ignored, but “second-round effects” not yet visible
• Trump’s “deep state” purge underway — acting DNI Bill Pul推进大规模裁员

Other:

• Kyiv issued air raid sirens; citizens urged to seek shelter
• Australia June PMI prelim: Manufacturing 51.2 (expansion), Services 49.9 (contraction)
• CME Direct connectivity issues resolved

🧭 Outlook

The US-Iran breakthrough is the biggest overnight variable — the 60-day USD oil sale exemption opens a pathway for Iranian crude to re-enter the market, capping near-term oil upside.

However, 400+ ships remaining at anchor signals the market still doubts the sustainability of these talks; real supply recovery requires more concrete progress.

Gold is stuck near $4,190 with Wall Street unanimously cautioning on short-term momentum — bulls lack a fresh catalyst.

Hot Canada CPI combined with ECB’s “no rush to cut” stance means global rate cut expectations may get pushed back further, which is a medium-term headwind for gold.

Today’s key focus: Japan PMI prelim at 08:30, then a dense European PMI calendar in the afternoon — French weakness would reinforce the European slowdown narrative.

📅 Today’s Data Calendar