📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-18 12:00 CST
Goldman expects Fed rate hike as early as September; US-Iran deal faces six deadlocks in 60-day window; Gold surges past 4319
📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-18 12:00 CST
📊 Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Gold XAUUSD | 4319.72 | +62.08 | +1.46% ↑ |
| 🛢️ WTI Crude | 74.420 | -1.348 | -1.78% ↓ |
- A-Shares Midday: ChiNext up 1.39% hitting a new 11-year high, STAR50 surging over 3%; semiconductors, telecom equipment, and consumer electronics leading gains; banks, insurance, and securities underperforming
- Domestic Futures: Coking coal down 6%+, lithium carbonate down ~5%, coke down 4%+; low sulfur fuel oil and PTA up 1%+
- T-Bond Futures: Marginal moves across the curve, 30-year down 0.05%
- CNH: Overnight CNH HIBOR rose to 1.47242%, highest since May 8
🔥 Key News This Hour
Fed rate hike expectations surge — Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Kaplan predicts that if inflation hasn’t cooled by September, the Fed could hike as early as fall, with “possibly one or two more” after that. Evercore ISI’s Guha also notes conditions for a hike are not yet met but the case is building. Market-implied probability of a September hike has jumped from 30% to over 50%.
US-Iran deal faces six critical obstacles — Full text analysis of the 14-point MOU reveals commitments on full sanctions relief, $300B reconstruction, and $100B in asset unfreezing. However, analysis warns the 60-day window must accomplish what took two years under Obama. Six deadlocks could force partial deals or extensions.
US-Iran deal may reshape global oil markets — Iran’s oil export gates swing open. At pre-conflict production levels and current prices, Iran’s annual revenue could exceed $60 billion, introducing new variables to global energy dynamics.
Yen hits new two-year low — Fed hawkishness dragged the yen lower. Market views are split: one camp warns of imminent currency intervention, the other argues the depreciation is not broad-based but a temporary adjustment.
Drone attack on Moscow oil refinery — Local mayor confirms drones struck a Moscow petroleum refinery, maintaining geopolitical risk signals.
Bohai Sea military exercise — Huludao Maritime Bureau issued a navigation warning for military exercises in parts of the Bohai Sea on June 18, 11:00-19:00.
🧭 Assessment
The shockwaves from the Fed’s policy pivot are spreading across all asset classes.
After Warsh’s debut, market pricing has repriced aggressively — September hike probability now exceeds 50%, a level unseen in two years.
Gold’s 1.46% rally to 4319 signals safe-haven flows hedging against both rate hikes and geopolitical risks simultaneously.
Oil eased to 74.4; the US-Iran deal would boost global supply expectations, yet Cushing inventories near operational minimums provide a floor — expect a near-term tug-of-war.
A-share tech is decoupling, with semiconductors and consumer electronics leading — domestic capital remains conviction-driven on the localization thesis.
Yen weakness is approaching a critical threshold; if broken, Bank of Japan intervention risk would spike, injecting volatility into global FX markets.
⏰ Upcoming Key Data
- 🇺🇸 Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Thu evening, US time)
- 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, June (Thu evening, US time)
- 🇺🇸 May Existing Home Sales (Friday)
- 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan rate decision and policy statement (Friday)
- 🇵🇭🇮🇩 Philippines, Indonesia central bank rate decisions (later today — OCBC expects 25bp hikes from both)