π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-18 11:00 CST
Fed Chair Warsh turns hawkish, September rate hike odds surge to 50%+; US-Iran deal signed online launching 60-day talks; Gold spikes to 4329 then retreats, coking coal plunges 6%
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-18 11:00 CST
π Market Snapshot
- Gold XAUUSD: 4311.34 (+1.26%), spiked to 4329.85 intraday before pulling back from open of 4256.62
- WTI Crude: 74.681 (-1.44%), retreated from high of 75.644 as Cushing inventory approaches operational floor
- Coking Coal Futures: Plunged 6%, trading at 1,268 CNY/ton; Coke futures down nearly 5% at 1,985 CNY/ton
- Lithium Carbonate: MMLC battery-grade down 800 CNY/ton morning session to 168,800 CNY/ton mid-price
- A-Share STAR 50: Up over 3%, Cambricon +13%, Zhongjixuachuang turnover hit 20 billion CNY
π₯ Key News This Hour
Goldman Sachs warns Fed may hike as early as September β Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan said if inflation stays elevated, September hike probability has surged from 30% to over 50%. Warsh’s debut removed dovish bias; dot plot shows only 1 official expects rate cuts this year.
US-Iran 14-point deal signed online, 60-day talks begin β Agreement covers full sanctions relief, $300B reconstruction, and $100B+ asset unfreezing. However, six deadlocks could derail negotiations at any time; both sides’ timelines are fundamentally misaligned.
US crude inventory falls for 10th straight week, Cushing near operational floor β EIA data shows cumulative drawdowns of 96.25M barrels since Iran conflict, total inventory at lowest since 1985.
China’s NDRCε―ι policy signals β Third tranche of 62.5B CNY subsidies to be disbursed before end of June; national grid coal reserves at 210M tons; rejected claim that China’s industrial competitiveness relies on subsidies.
Iran accuses Microsoft AI of being used for military target identification β Iran claims Claude was used to identify and prioritize military targets during operations against Iran; Microsoft has not responded.
Shanghai Clearing House to launch optimized foreign currency repo services from June 22 to further improve interbank market trading settlement.
π§ Analysis
The Fed’s hawkish pivot is today’s biggest market mover. Warsh’s debut removed dovish language and the dot plot was extremely hawkish β the market is now pricing in nearly 50% odds of a September hike. Gold’s failure to hold above 4329 signals buyer fatigue at these levels.
The US-Iran deal is signed but far from settled. The 60-day window must accomplish what took two years in the Obama era. Six deadlocks β nuclear facilities, sanctions relief pace, asset unfreezing, strait passage, reconstruction funding, and verification mechanisms β any one could collapse the deal. Oil markets reacted with restraint, with WTI edging lower, suggesting traders are waiting for execution details.
The coking coal/coke plunge deserves attention β it may signal weakening demand in the steel chain. Lithium carbonate continues to drift lower with no near-term catalyst for a rebound.
Domestically, China’s NDRC is sending clear stabilizing-growth signals: 200B CNY equipment upgrades + 62.5B consumer subsidies to land by month-end. But the market has largely priced in these expectations; watch for actual implementation impact.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Tonight: EIA crude oil inventory report (focus on whether Cushing breaches operational floor)
- June 19: US initial jobless claims
- June 20: BOJ rate decision, China LPR fixing
- Ongoing: US-Iran 60-day negotiation window progress, Fed official speeches