Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-16 11:00 CST
Goldman Sachs cuts oil price forecasts for second time in a week; BOJ expected to raise rates to highest since 1995; China ChiNext surges over 2%
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAUUSD | 4318.50 | -9.68 | -0.22% |
| WTI Crude | 80.788 | -0.600 | -0.74% |
Gold edged lower but held above 4300. Oil weakened on expectations of Hormuz Strait reopening following the US-Iran deal.
China equities rallied β ChiNext up over 2%, Shenzhen Component up 1.16%, Shanghai Composite up 0.17%. Non-metallic materials, supercapacitors, and electronic chemicals led gains.
π₯ Key Headlines
β’ Goldman Sachs cuts oil forecasts for second time in a week β Q4 2026 Brent lowered from $90 to $80/bbl, WTI to $75; 2027 Brent from $80 to $75. The bank now expects Persian Gulf exports to recover to pre-war levels by end of July, ahead of prior August estimate, assuming the US-Iran deal proceeds as planned.
β’ China NBS press conference β Industrial enterprise revenue and profit maintained steady growth; PPI rose but remained stable; new “total retail sales of consumer goods and services” indicator launched; emerging industries driving investment growth.
β’ Bank of Japan rate decision today β Markets expect a hike to the highest level since 1995 (1.0%). Governor Ueda is absent; Deputy Governor will chair the meeting. Analysis suggests the hike is a foregone conclusion but the yen’s weakness may persist; ending balance sheet reduction could be discussed.
β’ PGIM flips stance dramatically β The $1.4 trillion asset manager shifted from predicting Fed rate cuts in April to predicting three hikes in June, citing “remarkably resilient” economic data.
β’ Hormuz Strait reopening imminent β Following the US-Iran temporary deal to be signed Friday, the strait’s blockade will be lifted. Kpler estimates shipping volumes could recover to 50% of pre-war levels within a month. Israel insists it will not withdraw, adding uncertainty. SHFE aluminum futures hit new lows on fears of nearly 1 million tonnes of Middle Eastern aluminum being released.
β’ Goldman Sachs downgrades Chalco to Sell β Chinese aluminum capacity expanding rapidly, expected to exceed 48 million tonnes by year-end; target for Hongqiao cut to HK$26.
β’ Xi Jinping meets Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing β State talks held in Beijing on June 16.
π§ Outlook
Oil faces near-term pressure as Goldman’s back-to-back forecast cuts signal the market has brought forward expectations for post-deal supply recovery.
Hormuz reopening is the week’s pivotal variable β deal details remain unclear and Israel’s hardline stance means the actual recovery pace may fall short of expectations.
Gold found support around 4300; geopolitical risks haven’t fully subsided, but a stronger dollar and narrowing rate cut expectations cap upside potential.
If the BOJ hike is confirmed, watch the press conference language closely β any hints of a pause in the tightening cycle could weaken the yen further.
China’s structural rally continues, with ChiNext leadership reflecting a preference for growth sectors; monitor whether afternoon volume sustains.
β° Upcoming Events
β’ Today: BOJ rate decision and press conference (~11:30β13:00 Beijing time) β’ Today: US-Iran deal expected to be signed Friday; watch for detail disclosures β’ This week: Super central bank week begins, multiple central banks meeting