πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

AssetPriceChange% Change
Spot Gold XAUUSD4294.68+77.63+1.84%
WTI Crude USOIL81.218-3.605-4.25%

Gold climbed from 4268 to a high of 4309 overnight before pulling back, initially pressured by the US-Iran deal but rebounding as safe-haven demand persisted.

Oil plunged over 4% as the US-Iran agreement means the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and the naval blockade on Iran will be fully lifted, removing a major supply constraint.

πŸ”₯ Overnight Key News

  1. US-Iran Formalize Memorandum of Understanding β€” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement in the early hours confirming the US-Iran ceasefire MOU. Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi will travel to Geneva to sign the agreement, with US Vice President Vance representing Washington. This is the most significant diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and Washington in 47 years.

  2. Hormuz Strait to Be Permanently Toll-Free β€” Trump stated the deal will ensure the strait is “permanently toll-free.” The naval blockade on Iran will end immediately and completely. All fighting and military operations, including those involving Lebanon, will cease permanently starting tonight.

  3. Kyiv Hit by Massive Missile Barrage β€” Continuous explosions were heard across Kyiv, with approximately 30 missiles striking the Ukrainian capital within one hour. Poland activated military aviation in its airspace in response to Russian attacks on Ukraine.

  4. AI Export Restriction Negotiations β€” Anthropic met with Trump administration officials over the weekend, sending a top technical team to Washington seeking a deal to lift export restrictions on its most powerful AI models.

  5. South Korea Imported No Iranian Crude in May β€” Korean customs data showed South Korea imported 9.7 million tons of crude in May, down from 12.6 million tons a year earlier, with zero Iranian imports.

  6. “Super Central Bank Week” Ahead β€” This week features Wush’s debut, a potential BOJ rate hike. Monday data includes Eurozone April industrial output and trade balance, plus US NY Fed Manufacturing Index and industrial production.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The US-Iran deal is the biggest overnight variable β€” the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz marks a major turning point for global energy supply chains and is clearly bearish for crude oil in the short term.

Gold’s contrarian rise suggests markets haven’t fully shifted into risk-on mode; geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin safe-haven demand.

The Ukraine situation deteriorated simultaneously β€” the massive missile barrage on Kyiv combined with Polish airspace military operations signals escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict risks that partially offset the US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough.

The -4.25% drop in crude may only be the beginning as markets digest the implications of the strait reopening; if the signing proceeds smoothly, WTI could probe further lower.

The “Super Central Bank Week” kicks off today β€” NY Fed Manufacturing and industrial production data will reveal US economic resilience, while markets simultaneously watch for signals from Wush’s debut and the BOJ.

πŸ“… Today’s Key Economic Calendar

Asia Session

  • 12:30 Japan April Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM (prev: -0.20, forecast: +0.60)

Europe Session

  • 14:00 Germany May Wholesale Price Index YoY/MoM
  • 14:30 Switzerland May PPI YoY/MoM
  • 15:00 ⭐⭐⭐ Switzerland May Consumer Confidence (prev: -40, forecast: -38)
  • 16:00 Italy April Trade Balance
  • 17:00 ⭐⭐⭐ Eurozone April Trade Balance s.a. (prev: €3.5B)
  • 17:00 ⭐⭐⭐ Eurozone April Industrial Production MoM (prev: 0.20, forecast: 0.2)

Americas Session

  • 20:30 ⭐⭐⭐ US June NY Fed Manufacturing Index (prev: 19.6, forecast: 14)
  • 20:30 ⭐⭐⭐ Canada April Wholesale Sales MoM (prev: 1.90, forecast: 0.1)
  • 21:15 ⭐⭐⭐ US May Industrial Production MoM (prev: 0.70, forecast: 0.3)
  • 21:15 ⭐⭐ US May Capacity Utilization (prev: 76.10, forecast: 76.20)