📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-13 21:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

Weekend markets closed, prices frozen. Oil fell from 87.85 to 84.82 this week (-3%), fully pricing in Iran deal expectations. Gold flat at 4217, range-bound between 4170-4246 as safe-haven demand offsets deal optimism.

🔥 Key News This Hour

① Trump: Iran deal could be signed this weekend or Monday (20:31) Trump posted on social media that he believes a deal with Iran could be signed this weekend or next Monday, and asked Iran to publicly clarify reports from its state media about deal details, saying they were inaccurate. This is the first time Trump has given a specific signing timeline, closely aligning with Pakistan PM’s earlier “24-hour” prediction, significantly raising the probability of a Monday Asian session opening with a done deal.

② IDF strikes 70+ Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon (20:17) The Israeli Defense Forces stated that over the past day, they carried out multiple rounds of strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, destroying over 70 targets including rocket launchers and buildings used for planning attacks. This is the largest-scale military operation in the Lebanon front in recent days, indicating that even as US-Iran talks advance, Israel’s military operations in Lebanon are significantly escalating.

③ IDF: Two armed fighters killed in southern Lebanon operations (20:43) The Israeli military continued to announce operational results in southern Lebanon, corresponding with the 70-target strike operation, indicating that IDF operations in the area have entered a high-intensity phase.

🧭 Analysis

Trump’s “this weekend or Monday” timeline is the most important information upgrade this hour. Combined with Pakistan PM’s “24-hour” prediction, two key figures’ expectations are highly consistent, significantly raising the probability of a deal landing before Monday’s Asian session opens.

However, the scale of Israel’s 70-target military strikes is a warning sign. US-Iran peace talks and Middle East military escalation are advancing in parallel — Washington talks peace, Tel Aviv strikes Hezbollah, the two tracks operate independently.

The closer peace talks get to completion, the more aggressive the “grab for leverage” on the battlefield may become. Israel needs to maximize military gains before a deal takes effect, while Hezbollah is using rocket fire to secure negotiating leverage.

Oil’s ~3% weekly decline has priced in deal expectations, but if the deal truly lands this weekend, there could be one more leg down on Monday. Conversely, if signing is delayed again, oil may bounce.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

Late Saturday night, no major US economic data releases this weekend. Next Monday, watch for early Asian session developments on the Iran deal.