π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-11 10:00 CST
Trump says 'I love inflation,' giving new Fed Chair Warsh political cover to hold rates; BLS nominee publicly contradicts Trump on data fabrication claims at hearing; Trump says nearing order for new strikes on Iranian infrastructure
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAUUSD | $4,099.87 | +0.72% β | Rebounded from $4,024 low, high $4,118 |
| WTI Crude | $92.393 | -0.32% β | Pulled back from $94.37 high |
Gold staged a sharp intraday reversal from $4,024 to above $4,100, gaining over 1% at session highs, with intense battle between bulls and bears. Oil retreated from $94.4 to $92.4 as markets seek equilibrium between EIA inventory draw and Middle East risk premium.
π₯ Key News This Hour
π΄ Middle East β Trump Hints at New Strikes Coming
- Trump says he is “approaching ordering new strikes on Iranian infrastructure,” claiming the US is still assessing after two consecutive nights of bombing
- Defense Secretary previously stated “negotiating with bombs,” ceasefire prospects remain uncertain
- Iran’s Hormuz Strait closure claim contradicts US version β information war continues to escalate
π° Politics & Monetary Policy
- Trump publicly declares “I love inflation” β a sharp reversal from his past attacks on Powell. CNBC analysis suggests this gives incoming Fed Chair Warsh political cover to resist rate cuts
- BLS Director nominee publicly refutes Trump’s “data fabrication” claims at Congressional hearing, calling predecessor’s work professional
- Bank of Canada holds rates at 2.25% for fifth straight meeting, caught between economic contraction and rising inflation
π€ Technology
- Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI is considering major cuts to token pricing, expected to intensify user competition with Anthropic
- China’s MIIT issues “AI + Information & Communication” innovation implementation plan (2026-2028), boosting A-share semiconductor sector
π§ Market Assessment
Gold’s quick rebound from $4,024 to above $4,100 confirms strong support near $4,000, suggesting geopolitical premium has not fully dissipated.
However, options data shows traders are betting on continued gold decline β the most aggressive contracts wager prices will fall further over the next two years, so medium-term bearish pressure should not be dismissed.
Trump’s “nearing order for new strikes” statement is today’s biggest wildcard β if new strikes materialize, oil and gold could spike simultaneously.
The “I love inflation” remark, while seemingly absurd, signals Trump does not want the Fed hiking rates due to inflation, giving Warsh a political excuse to hold.
A-share semiconductor sector rallied on MIIT AI policy, but roughly 4,500 stocks fell versus only 900 rising β severe structural divergence.
Key focus tonight: ECB rate decision (20:15) + US PPI data (20:30). PPI above expectations would reinforce the stagflation narrative.
β° Upcoming Key Data
| Time (CST) | Data | Prior | Est. | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:15 | πͺπΊ ECB Rate Decision | 2.15% | 2.25% | ββββ |
| 20:30 | πΊπΈ Initial Jobless Claims | 225K | 219K | ββββ |
| 20:30 | πΊπΈ May PPI YoY | 6.0% | 6.4% | βββ |
| 20:30 | πΊπΈ May Core PPI YoY | 5.2% | 5.4% | ββ |
| 22:30 | πΊπΈ EIA Natural Gas Storage | +950B cf | β | βββ |
Tonight’s biggest events: ECB rate decision (expected +25bp to 2.25%) + US PPI (validating cost transmission from CPI). Both together could trigger sharp volatility during European session.