π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-06-11
US fires 49 Tomahawk missiles at Iran; Trump threatens 'bomb them into smithereens'; US May CPI hits 4.2% 3-year high; EIA crude stocks plunge 7.2M barrels
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAUUSD | $4,048.97 | -0.53% β | Opened $4,070, low $4,024 |
| WTI Crude | $93.36 | +0.72% β | Opened $92.71, high $94.37 |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.538% | +6.8bp | Auction stop rate |
Gold rallied then faded overnight, briefly dipping below $4,030. Crude pushed higher on Middle East escalation, with WTI approaching $94.40.
π₯ Key Overnight Headlines
π΄ Middle East Escalation
- US military launches second consecutive night of strikes on Iran; 49 Tomahawk missiles fired, fighter jets operating over Iranian airspace
- Trump claims “direct phone call” with Iranian officials β Iran demands bombing halt
- Iran denies any contact with Trump, calling claims “pure fabrication”
- IRGC announces completion of first phase of missile and drone offensive
- Iran claims to have closed Strait of Hormuz; US CENTCOM says commercial ships still transiting normally
- Iran claims to have hit a US warship; Pentagon calls it false
- Trump warns: “If Iran refuses to sign a deal, tomorrow night we bomb them into smithereens”
- Trump says Israel had no involvement in the strikes
- Explosion at ammunition depot near Aden, Yemen kills at least 11
π US Economic Data
- US May CPI: 4.2% YoY (in line), 3-year high driven by energy inflation surging to 23.5%
- Core CPI: 2.9% YoY (in line); Core CPI MoM 0.2% vs 0.3% expected β suggests inflation pressure not broadening
- EIA crude stocks: -7.227M barrels (expected -3.974M), Cushing stocks -801K
- Canada holds rates at 2.25% for 5th consecutive meeting
- 10Y Treasury auction stop: 4.538% (prev 4.47%), bid-to-cover 2.57 (strong demand)
π Other
- Trump’s political influence facing decline as midterms approach, Republican House control at risk
- SpaceX IPO identified as factor draining liquidity from US equities
- China May M2 money supply data pending release
π§ Assessment
The Middle East situation has escalated from diplomatic posturing to active military conflict β this is the dominant overnight variable.
Iran denying direct talks with Trump while announcing Phase 1 attack completion suggests the negotiation window is narrowing fast.
Hormuz Strait passage is now the focal point β Iran claims closure while the US denies it; information warfare itself is amplifying market volatility.
Gold faces a test at $4,000 β geopolitical premium is largely priced in for now, but further escalation could push it higher.
Crude supported by supply disruption fears β EIA drawdown combined with Middle East risk premium puts $95 WTI as the near-term resistance level.
Core CPI MoM running below expectations confirms inflation remains concentrated in energy β Fed rate cut expectations unchanged despite headline CPI surge.
Today’s focus: PPI data and ECB rate decision β if PPI surprises higher, the stagflation narrative gains momentum.
π Today’s Key Data Calendar
| Time (CST) | Event | Previous | Expected | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:15 | πͺπΊ ECB Deposit Rate | 2.15% | 2.25% | ββββ |
| 20:15 | πͺπΊ ECB Main Refinancing Rate | 2.40% | 2.65% | βββ |
| 20:30 | πΊπΈ Initial Jobless Claims | 225K | 219K | ββββ |
| 20:30 | πΊπΈ May PPI YoY | 6.0% | 6.4% | βββ |
| 20:30 | πΊπΈ May PPI MoM | 1.4% | 0.7% | βββ |
| 20:30 | πΊπΈ May Core PPI YoY | 5.2% | 5.4% | ββ |
| 22:30 | πΊπΈ EIA Natural Gas Storage | +95.0 Bcf | β | βββ |
Key watch today: ECB rate decision (expected +25bp to 2.25%) + US PPI (will verify cost pass-through after hot CPI print).