📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold $4,298.95/oz ↓ -0.71%, intraday range $85, high $4,363.66 → low $4,278.64
  • Spot Silver down 3.5% intraday; Shanghai silver futures down 4.00% at ¥15,767/kg
  • WTI Crude $88.748/bbl ↓ -3.92%, intraday range >$4, high $92.523 → low $88.398
  • US Equities (early): S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 erase gains, hit intraday lows

🔥 Key News This Hour

  • 【US Energy Secretary: Hormuz Strait ship traffic “significantly increasing”】Wright says vessel flow through the strait is rising sharply amid ongoing Iran conflict; oil exports will increase but normalizing energy flows will take months.
  • 【IDF Chief of Staff takes hardline stance】States military is “ready to immediately resume fighting against Iran,” calls recent strikes a prelude to stronger attacks; vows continued operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
  • 【US May existing home sales beat expectations】Annualized rate +3.2%, highest level of 2026, injecting optimism into a sluggish spring selling season.
  • 【TD Securities: US CPI expected to ease but remain sticky】Forecasts May core CPI month-on-month at 0.23%, year-on-year flat at 2.8%; limited room for further core inflation decline this year.
  • 【India gold import tariff sparks mass smuggling warning】Gray market gold trades at >$200/oz discount post-tariff hike; hundreds of tons of illicit gold inflows flagged.
  • 【Goldman Sachs, Barclays warn of sharp US equity selloff risk】Crowded positioning, narrow market structure, and elevated rates make US equities highly vulnerable.
  • 【Fed chair nominee debut imminent, 70% of economists skeptical of rate cuts】Geographic inflation shocks derail rate cut expectations; Castle Securities warns rate hikes could come sooner than expected.

🧭 Market Assessment

Precious metals and crude oil sold off in tandem — the Energy Secretary’s comments on Hormuz shipping recovery were the key catalyst.

Markets are pricing in geopolitical risk de-escalation — if shipping truly normalizes, the geopolitical premium in oil will compress significantly.

Israel’s hawkish rhetoric contradicts the energy optimism — the situation is far from settled.

Gold pulled back sharply from highs with Shanghai silver down 4%, as capital exits safe havens, but the dollar and rate expectations remain wildcards.

US equities failed to hold early gains, reflecting fragile risk appetite — tonight watch for CPI expectations to rattle the rate curve.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • This week: US May CPI report (TD Securities has issued its forecast preview)
  • Fed watch: New Chair Waddell’s debut imminent; market parsing his policy signals
  • Bank of Japan: Reportedly hiking to 1.0% in June; may pause QT after FY2027