πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

Gold (XAUUSD) at $4,329.23, up $1.46 (+0.03%) on the day, having bounced from an intraday low of $4,268. Oil (WTI) at $92.41, down $0.68 (-0.74%) on the day, retreating sharply from $95 in the prior hour. Rising ceasefire expectations in the Middle East are weighing on crude prices.

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

β€’ Iran announces halt to military operations against Israel but draws a red line: will retaliate strongly if Lebanon is attacked again. Earlier, Trump revealed both sides are pursuing an immediate ceasefire, with the blockade remaining in effect until a “final agreement” is reached.

β€’ Israeli officials say they are awaiting clear direction from political leadership on the path forward. Netanyahu and Trump just held a phone call.

β€’ Iraq reopens its airspace for flights, signaling a gradual recovery in Middle East aviation corridors.

β€’ Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun reveals the company has been collaborating with Samsung Electronics on ASIC development, and says partnerships with SK Hynix and SK Telecom could bring hundreds of billions in business to South Korea.

β€’ Indian trade officials state the India-US trade deal may be finalized after the conclusion of the US Trade Representative’s “Section 301” investigation, with India seeking assurances against future additional tariffs.

β€’ Shenzhen Huaqiang reports storage, power management, analog chips, and MLCCs experiencing shortages and price increases, with Q1 long-tail spot business revenue surging over 300% YoY.

β€’ Turkey’s major banking index extends gains, up 3.6% intraday.

🧭 Assessment

Iran’s announcement to halt military operations against Israel is the biggest variable of the hour, significantly reducing Middle East geopolitical risk.

Oil has plunged from $95 to near $92 as markets price in ceasefire expectations β€” but Iran’s red line on Lebanon means de-escalation is far from guaranteed.

Israel awaiting political instructions and the Netanyahu-Trump call indicate that Israel has not formally accepted the ceasefire framework yet, leaving significant room for further developments.

Iraq’s airspace reopening is a positive signal, but the real anchor for oil prices remains the restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Huang Renxun’s repeated signals of Korean cooperation point to a reshaping of the semiconductor supply chain’s geopolitical landscape β€” watch for follow-through from Samsung and SK.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

β€’ Fed Governor Warsh’s first public appearance imminent β€” markets watching closely for hawkish/dovish signals in the dot plot

β€’ Apple WWDC tonight β€” Tim Cook’s final keynote as CEO, with AI strategy relaunch expected

β€’ ECB rate decision expectations rising β€” ING forecasts potential consecutive rate hikes

β€’ Continued monitoring of Iran-Israel ceasefire negotiation developments