πŸ“Š Market Overview

  • πŸ₯‡ Gold XAUUSD: 4307.42 (-0.47%), intraday range 4300-4353, continues sliding in Asia session with 4300 support under threat
  • πŸ›’οΈ WTI Crude: 94.93 (+3.48%), intraday range 93.35-95.91, retreated from session high of 95.9 as geopolitical premium is reassessed

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

Israel Channel 12 corrects report: only Yemen missiles, not Iran

  • Channel 12 initially reported detecting missiles launched from Iran, then corrected to “actually only Yemen launched missiles”
  • This critical correction significantly weakens the scenario the market had priced in: “Iran directly attacking US military base in Saudi Arabia”
  • The core logic for geopolitical premium has been undermined, and the market may correct for earlier overreaction

Saudi base attack claims lose further credibility

  • Analysts had already raised doubts about the speed and timeline of the reported attack
  • Combined with the Israeli media correction, the report of Iran attacking Saudi Prince Sultan Air Base is likely false
  • Saudi civil defense has stated the danger in the Al-Khargi area has been resolved

Chinese A-shares continue afternoon recovery, Shanghai Composite reclaims 4000

  • Shanghai Composite narrows decline to 0.68%, briefly trading above 4000
  • Brokerage stocks lead gains: Guosheng Securities +6%, Caida Securities +4%
  • Banking and minor metals sectors strengthen, capital flows into heavyweights for support

Chinese policy support continues

  • NDRC announces ultra-long-term special bond funds for urban underground pipeline construction
  • Ministry of Natural Resources: micro-renewal projects may receive simplified or exempted planning approvals
  • Hong Kong heavy machinery stocks rally, Zoomlion +5%

🧭 Market Assessment

Channel 12’s correction is the most critical information increment this hour β€” if confirmed that only Houthi missiles were involved rather than a direct Iranian attack on a US base in Saudi Arabia, the geopolitical premium the market overpriced will face significant correction pressure.

Gold has fallen nearly $50 from its 4353 high to 4307; if the geopolitical narrative is debunked alongside Fed rate hike expectations, the 4300 support may not hold.

Oil retreated from 95.9 to 94.9 with gains narrowing but staying elevated, reflecting the market’s continued caution on Middle East tensions but reduced willingness to chase higher.

Asian equities show stabilization signs: A-shares reclaimed 4000, Hong Kong narrowed losses, and Korean central bank’s hawkish stance has temporarily calmed panic sentiment.

Key watchpoints for the rest of the day: Israel’s response intensity to Houthi missiles, US official statements on Middle East tensions, and tonight’s NY Fed inflation expectations data.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 13:00 Japan May Economy Watchers Survey (Current/Outlook)
  • 14:00 Germany April Factory Orders MoM
  • 15:00 Switzerland May Consumer Confidence Index
  • 16:30 Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index ⭐⭐⭐
  • 22:00 US May Conference Board Employment Trends Index
  • 23:00 US May NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations ⭐⭐⭐