📰 Overnight Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-06-08

📊 Market Snapshot

• 🥇 Gold XAUUSD: 4,343.98 (+0.37%), overnight range 4,310–4,347, mild uptick
• 🛢️ WTI Crude: 93.86 (-2.32%), overnight range 93.51–95.00, notable decline

🔥 Overnight Headlines

Middle East: Iran Missile Strike on Israel, Trump Intervenes

• Iran launched missiles at an Israeli airbase, calling it a “warning” over Israel’s military escalation in Lebanon
• Israel claimed to intercept all missiles but vowed a “forceful response”
• US official: Israel “reluctantly agreed” to stand down; Trump believes diplomatic deal is imminent
• Trump explicitly told Netanyahu not to retaliate: “I’m handling everything”
• Oman’s previously attacked port has resumed operations; crude loading is underway

Monetary Policy: Blowout Nonfarm Payrolls, Rate Hike Odds Surge

• Goldman Sachs completely abandons 2026 rate cut forecast; rate hike probability doubles to 20%
• Trump publicly pushed back: “No reason to raise rates — we should actually be cutting”
• Last Friday’s NFP far exceeded expectations, triggering global liquidity tightening repricing
• Treasury yields and USD index surged sharply; Nasdaq 100 under pressure

OPEC+ Production

• Sources: OPEC+ may raise output targets by another ~188,000 bpd from July

Ukraine

• Zelensky proposes initial ceasefire with status quo, followed by negotiations
• Putin rejects Zelensky’s negotiation proposal
• Zelensky briefed UK PM Starmer on energy infrastructure protection and winter preparedness

Japan Data (Released 07:50)

• Q1 GDP annualized final: +1.8% (est. +1.3%, prev. +2.1%), revised higher
• Q1 GDP quarterly final: +0.5% (est. +0.3%, prev. +0.5%), in line with prior
• April trade balance: ¥395.7bn (prev. ¥830.5bn), narrowed sharply

Tech

• NVIDIA and SK Hynix announce multi-year tech partnership for HBM and next-gen memory
• SK Telecom partners with NVIDIA for gigawatt-scale AI cloud; first AI factory in 2027
• NAVER partners with NVIDIA to expand autonomous AI infrastructure to gigawatt scale
• OpenAI plans major ChatGPT upgrade

Other

• Magnitude 8.2 earthquake near the Philippines (GFZ measured 7.26)
• Mongolia cuts copper mining royalty to under 10%, aligning with international standards

🧭 Assessment

Iran’s missile strike is a clear signal of Middle East escalation, but Trump’s forceful intervention has temporarily capped the risk of full-scale conflict; Israel is highly unlikely to launch a major retaliation in the near term.

The blowout NFP combined with Goldman’s hawkish pivot means Fed rate cuts in 2026 are essentially off the table; a 20% rate hike probability is still low, but the directional shift warrants attention.

Gold’s modest gains despite rising rate-hike expectations suggest geopolitical safe-haven demand is temporarily outweighing the hawkish repricing.

OPEC+ plans to boost output by another 188k bpd from July, combined with Oman port restoration, adding supply-side pressure; WTI’s retreat from $95 to $93.86 signals near-term weakness.

Today’s key data: Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence and US NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations — both will test how the market is repricing economic outlook and inflation after the NFP shock.

📅 Today’s Key Data Calendar