📊 Market Overview

Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4,470.50 | -0.82%

  • Intraday range: 4,424.04 – 4,484.00
  • Pullback from session highs near 4,484. Safe-haven demand remains but profit-taking emerged.

WTI Crude Oil: $96.228 | -1.71%

  • Intraday range: $95.688 – $97.538
  • Dropped below $96/bbl. Brent fell below $95/bbl, down 2.36% on the day.

🔥 Key News This Hour

🇷🇺 Russian Deputy PM Novak: Oil market may face full supply shortage

  • Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, warned that if Middle East hostilities continue, the global oil market could face substantial supply shortages in coming months. Significant bearish sentiment for energy.

🇺🇸 US May AI layoffs hit all-time record

  • Challenger report shows AI was the #1 cause of layoffs for the 3rd consecutive month, with 38,579 jobs cut in May — the highest monthly figure since tracking began in 2023. FinTech sector shed 5,731 jobs; transportation industry layoffs surged 449% YoY to 6,909.

🇺🇸 Three US agencies launch joint review of Iran military operations

  • The DoD, State Department, and USAID inspectors general opened a joint review of the US war against Iran, legally mandated for overseas military operations exceeding 60 days. Markets remain on alert for war escalation risks.

🇺🇦 Air raid sirens sounded in Ukraine’s Odessa region

  • Geopolitical risks continue to simmer; Eastern European tensions show no signs of abating.

🇮🇱 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire reached but Netanyahu faces voter backlash

  • New ceasefire agreement in place, but northern Israeli voters demand continued hardline operations. Opposition campaigning intensifies along the border, widening political fractures.

🧭 Assessment

Oil markets face a tug-of-war — Russia issued a stark warning of full supply shortages, yet prices still fell, suggesting markets are pricing in ceasefire expectations alongside demand weakness simultaneously.

Gold trades near $4,470, with short-term safe-haven premium largely priced in. However, sustained central bank buying (17 tons net in April) provides a medium-term floor.

BOJ Governor Ueda’s hawkish pivot is unambiguous — a June rate hike is now near-certain. Combined with the Fed’s reinforced hawkish stance, global rate expectations are undergoing a systemic repricing.

Deteriorating AI-driven layoff data, particularly in transportation and fintech, poses a structural challenge to the long-term valuation thesis for US tech equities.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • Fed FOMC meeting this week — market has significantly scaled back rate cut expectations
  • RBA Governor signaled readiness for further rate hikes if necessary
  • Global central bank gold purchasing trends under continued watch