๐ฐ Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-04 17:00 CST
OPEC+ rejects UAE quota reallocation; Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant attacked; Global central banks net bought 17t gold in April; BOJ Governor turns hawkish; Iran fund unfreezing enters final stage
๐ฐ Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-04 17:00 CST
๐ Market Snapshot
- ๐ฅ Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4462.47 | +0.64% (+28.52)
- Open 4437.09 / High 4484.00 / Low 4424.04
- ๐ข๏ธ WTI Crude (USOIL): 96.618 | -1.31% (-1.285)
- Open 97.458 / High 97.538 / Low 96.008
๐ Gold held steady around 4460, little changed from the previous hour. Crude accelerated its decline from 97.1 to 96.6, with Brent already down 2% to 95.28. European equities advanced, led by software and IT stocks up 3-5%.
๐ฅ Key News This Hour
OPEC+ Rejects UAE Quota Reallocation: Russian Deputy PM Novak confirmed OPEC+ has no plans to redistribute the UAE’s oil production quota. The่กจๆ eases near-term concerns about่็ fragmentation, but the UAE’s output increase demands remain unresolved.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Under Attack: IAEA reported that the Zaporizhzhia thermal power plant was heavily attacked this morning. The plant’s substation supplies power to the nuclear facility โ the sole remaining transmission line remains connected but has been repeatedly disrupted in recent weeks.
Iran Fund Unfreezing Enters Final Stage: Al Arabiya reported talks on releasing frozen Iranian assets are in their final phase, but Trump has explicitly refused to release funds before signing a deal, creating the biggest obstacle.
Global Central Banks Net Bought 17t Gold in April: World Gold Council data shows central banks collectively purchased 17 tonnes in April, ending March’s selling streak. Eastern European and Asian nations continue accumulating gold, supporting long-term demand fundamentals.
BOJ Governor Ueda Turns Hawkish: Ueda adjusted the BOJ’s rate hike trigger conditions, no longer accommodating supply-side inflation shocks. A June hike is now virtually certain, with markets pricing in another increase this autumn. Yen two-week implied volatility surged to the highest since October 2022.
Israel Defense Minister: Operations in South Lebanon to Continue: Katz declared the IDF will maintain its presence in the “security zone” and continue dismantling terrorist infrastructure. Military operations in southern Lebanon are far from over.
STMicroelectronics Resumes Trading, Drops 5.8%: STMicro’s Milan-listed shares resumed trading after a halt, falling 5.8%, adding pressure to the semiconductor sector.
Onshore CNY Closes at 6.7768: Down 48 pips from the previous session, as relative USD strength weighs on Asian currencies.
๐งญ Market Assessment
OPEC+’s rejection of UAE quota reallocation temporarily eases fears of allianceๅ่ฃ, but the UAE’s push for higher output won’t disappear โ OPEC+ discipline faces medium-to-long-term่้ช.
The continued attacks around Zaporizhzhia represent a sword of Damocles hanging over Europe; any transmission line disruption could trigger a fresh wave of risk aversion.
While Iran fund unfreezing talks have entered the final stage, Trump’s “no release before signing” stance means negotiations could drag on for weeks, keeping the Strait of Hormuz risk premium elevated.
Ueda’s surprise hawkish pivot is the most่ถ ้ขๆ event this hour โ potential yen volatility could trigger carry trade unwind, posing a latent risk to global risk assets.
Global central banks resuming gold purchases in April, combined with persistent geopolitical risks, keep gold’s fundamentals firmly bullish. However, the 4484 high remains a near-term resistance, and direction awaits tonight’s US data releases.
โฐ Upcoming Key Data
- ๐ช๐บ Eurozone April Retail Sales MoM (imminent)
- ๐บ๐ธ US ADP Employment Change (20:15 CST tonight)
- ๐บ๐ธ US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (22:00 CST tonight)
- ๐บ๐ธ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (22:30 CST tonight)
- ๐ฏ๐ต BOJ Meeting (market expects June rate hike)