π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-04 10:03 CST
SpaceX pushes $1.78T IPO amid political controversy; Trump sets Iran red line β no full war unless US troops killed; US Treasury Secretary insists 3.8% inflation is 'transitory'
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-06-04 10:03 CST
π Market Snapshot
- π‘ Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4465.24 (+31.29, +0.71%) | Open 4437.09 | High 4473.56 | Low 4424.04
- π’οΈ WTI Crude (USOIL): 96.568 (-1.335, -1.36%) | Open 97.458 | High 97.538 | Low 96.458
π₯ Key Headlines This Hour
SpaceX Pushes $1.78T IPO β Elon Musk’s SpaceX is seeking a public listing at a $1.78 trillion valuation. Reports reveal Trump administration officials were allegedly “early investors,” sparking controversy over political entanglements.
Trump Sets Iran Red Line β Trump told advisors he would not resume full-scale war against Iran unless US troops are directly killed. Combined with yesterday’s House vote blocking military action, the probability of full Middle East escalation in the near term has declined.
US Treasury Secretary Insists Inflation “Transitory” β Secretary Mnuchin used the word “transitory” to downplay 3.8% inflation, claiming price surges from the Iran conflict are just short-term disruptions. The rhetoric echoes Yellen’s infamous “transitory” misjudgment.
TSMC CEO Speaks Out β TSMC has acquired High-NA EUV equipment for R&D but won’t put it into production due to excessive costs. 2025 wafer shipments hit 15 million units with advanced nodes contributing 74% of revenue. TSMC admits US capacity is “far from sufficient” β Taiwan remains the largest production base.
Hong Kong Stocks Extend Losses β Hang Seng Index down 1%, Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.36%. A-share non-ferrous metals sector declined in tandem.
A-Share Sector Divergence β Memory chip sector rallied (Dawei shares hit daily limit), shipbuilding sector surged (CSSC Special Gas up 16%+), but oil & gas and non-ferrous metals sectors fell notably.
π§ Market Analysis
Trump’s “red line” statement effectively reduces the probability of full-scale Middle East war, putting short-term pressure on geopolitical premiums to unwind.
However, the “unless US troops are killed” precondition is itself highly uncertain β any accidental confrontation could instantly change the calculus.
Gold continues to strengthen near 4465. Even with Middle East de-escalation expectations rising, sticky inflation and Fed hawk-dove division provide ongoing support.
WTI broke below 97, under short-term pressure, but the actual risk to the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t disappeared β don’t chase the short too aggressively.
Mnuchin’s “transitory” narrative deserves caution β Yellen’s identical rhetoric was eventually debunked by the market. If 3.8% inflation persists into Q3, the Fed will face a far more painful dilemma.
TSMC confirmed High-NA EUV won’t enter production soon. The near-term advanced node expansion pace remains unchanged, and the bullish thesis for ASML and semiconductor equipment stocks is largely priced in.
The A-share pattern of divergence continues: AI compute demand drives memory chips, but traditional cyclicals (non-ferrous metals, oil & gas) are dragged down by global economic slowdown expectations.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- β° 16:00 β ECB Interest Rate Decision βββ
- π 20:15 β US May ADP Employment Change βββ
- π 20:30 β US Initial Jobless Claims ββ
- π 22:00 β US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI βββ