This article continues the macro analysis series. The previous piece “War, Debt, the Dollar & Gold: A Loop With No Clean Exit” discussed the macro trap. This article records two major variables changing simultaneously: Warsh’s policy framework confirmed + US-Iran ceasefire deal reached.

I. Warsh Confirms “QT + Rate Cuts” — Verified with Sources

A Zhihu article claimed “Warsh himself said he wants to cut rates and shrink the balance sheet.” Verified as true.

Sources:

  • CICC/Sina Finance (Apr 22, 2026): Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee, revealing “QT + rate cuts” as his core dual-track policy stance, explicitly opposing the normalization of QE.
  • CMB Research/21st Century Business Herald (Feb 14, 2026): Warsh believes QT can further expand room for rate cuts in the long run. He stated: “If the printing press were quieter, interest rates could be lower.”
  • Investopedia (Apr 21, 2026): “We do believe Warsh will likely be a proponent of rate cuts in 2026… balance sheet was ‘bloated’ and could ‘be reduced significantly.’”
  • Morningstar (Jan 30, 2026): “He’s said that shrinking that balance sheet would make it easier to maintain lower rates.”
  • Securities Times (Apr 22, 2026): Warsh stated he would not cut rates solely due to Trump’s pressure; Trump “never asked” him to cut rates.

Framework logic: Shrink balance sheet → withdraw liquidity → asset prices fall → inflation eases → room to cut rates → support real economy.

Warsh distinguishes between financial liquidity (QE money that inflates asset prices) and credit cost (interest rates affecting real economy borrowing). His argument: QE only inflated asset prices without helping the real economy, so shrink the balance sheet (withdraw financial liquidity) + cut rates (reduce credit cost), redirecting resources from Wall Street to Main Street.

Previous Assessment

In our previous analysis, we judged Warsh’s framework as “unlikely to work” in the current environment of “war + oil + supply-side inflation.”

This assessment needs revision.

II. US-Iran Ceasefire Deal — Effective June 19

On June 15, 2026, multiple mainstream outlets confirmed: US-Iran peace deal reached.

Core terms:

  • Effective June 19
  • Strait of Hormuz immediately reopened
  • US lifts naval blockade on Iran
  • Iran commits to abandoning nuclear weapons
  • Pakistan-mediated

Sources: NYT, CBS News, FOX 10 Phoenix, The Guardian, Wikipedia

III. How the Ceasefire Changes Everything

1. Oil Prices Will Likely Plunge

Hormuz reopens → 20% of global oil supply restored → oil from $90+ could fall back to $60-70 range. Global oil inventories were depleted to dangerously low levels (Brookings confirmed); once supply restores, oil prices may fall faster than they rose.

2. Inflation Pressure Collapses

Oil plunge → CPI from 4.2% will likely fall → Fed rate hike necessity大幅下降. The core contradiction we analyzed — “rate hikes can’t fight supply-side inflation” — suddenly disappears, because the supply-side driver (oil) has been directly removed.

Warsh’s “QT + rate cuts” framework suddenly becomes viable: shrink balance sheet + inflation回落 + cut rates to support economy — the logic chain finally works. Our previous judgment of “unlikely to work” needs revision: if oil真的 falls to $60-70 and CPI drops below 3%, Warsh’s framework has execution space.

3. Gold: Short-Term Bearish

Risk premium fading + inflation expectations falling → gold could continue declining. The “war supports gold” variable has directly disappeared. Gold’s drop from $5,600 to $4,046 was partly driven by war panic premium; ceasefire means this premium gets stripped out further.

But long-term logic (USD credit erosion, de-dollarization, central bank buying) is unaffected.

4. US Stocks: Bullish

Oil down → consumers benefit (cheaper gas, lower transport costs) → inflation drops → rate expectations下行 → tech stock valuation repair. SpaceX IPO (+19% first day) + ceasefire = dual catalysts. Tomorrow (6/16 Monday) US stocks will likely gap up.

5. Korea & EMs: Bullish

USD weakening expectations + global risk appetite回升 → capital may flow back to EMs. Korea, the most heavily bled market, may see a阶段性 bounce. But retail leverage problem hasn’t been solved — 38 trillion won in margin debt still outstanding — bounce may be an opportunity to reduce positions, not bottom-fish.

IV. ⚠️ Risks Remain

1. Israel may not cooperate. NYT headline: “Trump Calls for Restraint After Israel Strikes Beirut” — same day as the ceasefire deal, Israel was still bombing Beirut. April’s ceasefire broke down once. Israel’s objective (destroy Iran’s nuclear capability) contradicts “ceasefire negotiations.”

2. Iran’s credibility questionable. “Abandoning nuclear weapons” is a massive承诺. North Korea promised the same, then reversed.

3. Hormuz reopening timeline unclear. “Immediately” is Trump’s word; actual execution could take weeks or months.

4. $39 trillion debt problem unsolved. Ceasefire only removes one恶化 factor; structural debt issues remain.

5. “Buy the rumor” phase not over. Uncertainty remains until June 19 effective date.

V. Revisions to Previous Analysis

Revision 1: Warsh Framework Viability

Previous (6/12): “QT + rate cuts unlikely to work in current ‘war + oil + supply-side inflation’ environment.”

Revised (6/15): If ceasefire executes, oil回落 to $60-70, CPI回落 below 3%, Warsh’s framework becomes viable. The supply-side inflation driver is removed; QT can effectively contain inflation, rate cuts can support economy. Success depends on ceasefire execution.

Revision 2: Gold Short-Term Logic

Previous (6/12): “Gold short-term bearish, but war + oil are supporting factors.”

Revised (6/15): War support factor消失, gold short-term downside pressure increases. $4,000 is next support; if broken, possibly $3,800. Long-term logic unchanged.

Revision 3: Macro Loop Exit

Previous (6/12): “This loop has no clean exit.”

Revised (6/15): Ceasefire is the loop’s first “exit” — oil plunge → inflation drops → rate expectations fade → Warsh framework viable. But this is a “partial exit”: $39 trillion debt, USD credit erosion, Warsh’s execution capacity — these don’t disappear because of a ceasefire.

VI. One-Sentence Summary

Warsh confirmed the “QT + rate cuts” framework; the US-Iran ceasefire removed oil as the最大的 inflation driver. Two variables叠加, the macro格局 shifts from “no solution” to “has a path but uncertain.” Key uncertainties: ceasefire能否真正 execute (Israel risk), how far oil falls, Warsh’s QT timing. Tomorrow US stocks will likely gap up, but uncertainty remains until June 19 effective date.

Data Sources:

  • Kevin Warsh: CICC/Sina Finance, CMB Research/21st Century Business Herald, Investopedia, Morningstar, Securities Times
  • US-Iran Ceasefire: NYT, CBS News, FOX 10 Phoenix, The Guardian, Wikipedia
  • US Debt: SBC Gold — $39 trillion
  • Oil/Inflation: Brookings Institution, goldsilver.com

This article is investment analysis discussion and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk. Exercise caution in decision-making.