StocKlaw
Data-driven US equity research.
不靠叙事，不靠小道消息，只信数据和逻辑。
Coverage 15:00–16:00 CST: Flydubai flight lands safely in Saudi Arabia, hijacking premium unwinds; Swedish Riksbank hawkish minutes raise global tightening expectations; French 10Y bond risk premium hits 120bps, highest since 2012. Gold holds $4,194, crude $88.6. A-shares trading; US/HK markets closed.
CNN Fear & Greed data pull and cross-validation run on 2026-10-03 CST. Latest data as of 2026-10-02 (US close), composite index 31.2 (Fear), up +3.1 from prior session 28.1. 20 consecutive fear days, sample low 5.2 (2025-11-20). Four of nine sub-indicators in Fear/Extreme Fear. HY credit spreads in alert zone, yield curve normal-flat, margin debt and ETF flows at historical highs.
Verification analysis of a Gemini Deep Research report on US data center delays, plus additional overlooked beneficiaries uncovered through independent research
Nvidia teams with six asset giants to mobilize $500B of third-party capital for AI infrastructure — residual-value backstops, off-balance-sheet commitments, insurance capital taking the paper. A structural teardown of a swelling credit chain and its trigger paths
Verifying Zhihu @旷野's analysis of the Barclays AI Unit Economics report: depreciation lag, revenue recognition, 2028 impairment risk, and the probability of the revenue curve
Coverage 15:00–16:00 CST: Flydubai flight lands safely in Saudi Arabia, hijacking premium unwinds; Swedish Riksbank hawkish minutes raise global tightening expectations; French 10Y bond risk premium hits 120bps, highest since 2012. Gold holds $4,194, crude $88.6. A-shares trading; US/HK markets closed.
Covers 14:00-15:00 CST: Dubai Air flight疑似 hijacked triggering Middle East flash point, France Sept CPI beats expectations, UK Q2 GDP revised up. Gold probes $4,191, oil breaks $88.9. US/HK stocks closed for holiday.
Covering 13:00–14:00 CST: Consecutive earthquakes off Taiwan and Japan, UK Q2 GDP final at 14:00. Gold steady near $4,178, crude dips slightly. US/HK markets closed; A-shares the only active venue.
CNN Fear & Greed data pull and cross-validation run on 2026-10-03 CST. Latest data as of 2026-10-02 (US close), composite index 31.2 (Fear), up +3.1 from prior session 28.1. 20 consecutive fear days, sample low 5.2 (2025-11-20). Four of nine sub-indicators in Fear/Extreme Fear. HY credit spreads in alert zone, yield curve normal-flat, margin debt and ETF flows at historical highs.
S&P 500 factor test: prices as of 10-02 (Fri). Value factors (EP/FCF Yield/ROE) persist negative; momentum broadly negative but not significant; low-vol anomaly (negative alpha) strongest signal. 5 of 7 sector momentum sign flips are regime continuation, not today's突变.
Composite index at 28.09 (Fear), in its 18th consecutive fear day. Sub-indicators are heavily diverged: momentum and breadth remain in fear, while volatility (VIX 16.39) and junk bond demand do not yet confirm crisis. Credit spreads have entered警戒 zone, while margin debt and ETF inflows hit record highs -- leverage and liquidity signals create a cross-verification contradiction.
Verification analysis of a Gemini Deep Research report on US data center delays, plus additional overlooked beneficiaries uncovered through independent research
Companies with significant pre-AI moats, where AI serves as an enhancer rather than core driver
Six growth themes: datacenter infrastructure, healthcare, energy transition, and more
Nvidia teams with six asset giants to mobilize $500B of third-party capital for AI infrastructure — residual-value backstops, off-balance-sheet commitments, insurance capital taking the paper. A structural teardown of a swelling credit chain and its trigger paths
Multi-dimensional deep dive into Adobe covering technicals, earnings, AI competition, management changes, peer comparison, and valuation — includes left-side trading framework and Buffett Indicator discussion
Warsh confirmed 'QT + rate cuts' dual-track policy; US-Iran ceasefire effective June 19, Hormuz reopens. Oil, inflation, gold, US stocks, Korea — all variables turning simultaneously
Verifying Zhihu @旷野's analysis of the Barclays AI Unit Economics report: depreciation lag, revenue recognition, 2028 impairment risk, and the probability of the revenue curve
Series validation of Qianxia Qingfengyue's four essays: five survival tricks, a bubble taxonomy, fiscal tax base, and a slow-crisis verdict
Fact-checking Zhihu @小滑头's five arguments against the US stock crash thesis: CAPE, AI circular funding, Fed Put, dollar hegemony, historical probability